Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

WEEKLY RAIL SHIPPING: 1/2/2010 SLOWING AGAIN

Below is a fourteen-week data compilation of 2009/10 rail shipping weekly figures compared to 2008/09. The Delta change illustrates the rate of change between the previous weeks data.
 
Overall rail shipping is again starting to drop: with the current week change being quite dramatic. Only grain is maintaining some strength with the 5 other sectors mentioned last week all slipping, and still very deeply negative compared to this period of 2007. Any US economic recovery will need to sustain a week over week improvement, and also a year to date and 4 week moving average improvement. Next weeks Long Beach shipping report will help clarify the rail data.
 
RAIL TRAFFIC
2010&09 COMPARED TO 2008&9
 
 
 
Yr to Date
 
Current Wk
 
4 Wk Roll Av
DATE
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
 
Change
 
Change
 
Change
1/2/2010
-15.3
0.2
-0.2
-5
-0.3
1.3
12/26/2009
-15.5
0.3
4.8
1
-1.6
1.8
12/19/2009
-15.8
0.4
3.8
9.6
-3.4
2.1
12/12/2009
-16.2
0.1
-5.8
-0.9
-5.5
0.4
12/5/2009
-16.3
0.2
-4.9
0
-5.9
1.7
11/28/2009
-16.5
0.2
-4.9
0.4
-7.6
1.8
11/21/2009
-16.7
0.2
-5.3
3.1
-9.4
1.9
11/14/2009
-16.9
0.2
-8.4
2.7
-11.3
1.4
11/7/2009
-17.1
0.2
-11.1
1.5
-12.7
0.9
10/31/2009
-17.3
0.3
-12.6
-0.4
-13.6
0
10/24/2009
-17.6
0.3
-12.2
1.7
-13.6
0.4
11/11/2009
-17.9
0.1
-13.9
1.1
-14
2
10/3/2009
-18
0.1
-15
1.2
-16
1.2
9/26/2009
-18.1
0
-16.2
0
-17.2
0
 
 
12/26 statement: Well, this week you can add forest products to: grain, chemicals, food, metals and autos. All moving in a positive direction. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues into 2010. Thus far, it has held for two weeks, with grain exports helping the overall average. The cheep dollar maybe contributing to the beginning of an export recovery, which would not be reflected yet, in Long Beach container figures.
 
12/19 statement: It is easy to see the recovery reflected, as all three shipping columns are slowly raising out of extreme negativite territory.
 
12/12 statement: “It is also obvious that the rate of change between week-to-week periods is slowing in all three columns. In looking at a slowing rate of improvement, remember two things. One: these are all negative figures. Two: the comparison period last year is the fourth qtr., the worst period of contracting rail shipping.” Last week the data changed to the upside.   “Contributing to this was: grain, chemicals, food, metals and autos. It’s nice to see a number of sectors improving across the board.   As these figurers are compared to 2008 and the first quarter of 2008 was pretty bad, therefore the current rail data is looking pretty good, while Long Beach incoming ship containers is still very depressed. “


Disclosure: none