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LONG BEACH, JANUARY CONTAINER DATA: NOTHING TO WRITE HOME TO MOM ABOUT

January’s Long Beach data has just been released. Below is the raw data. December was running at 15.9% above Dec of 2008 and Jan is 12.7% above Jan of 2009. These year over year figures are high because container shipping was crashing in the first quarter of 2009, making comparisons look great. 
 
January’s Out Bound Container figure dropped 8% from December, which puts into question some kind of export driven recovery based on a weak dollar scenario. Also, Inbound Containers are down from December by 6.3% and indicates sluggish, none expanding demand. These figures do not confirm an economic recovery. Both rail transport figures and PCI diesel consumption data also are not signaling a demand driven economic recovery.
 
There is nothing to write home to Mom about in this report. This is a stagnate report at best, and Total Loaded Containers must expand to confirm US economic recovery. I guess we wait for a month to see what February brings and continue to watch rail traffic and the PCI data.
 
 
Loaded
Loaded
Total
Empties
Total
Inbound
out bd.
Loaded
 
 
 
 
 
 
10-Feb
 
 
 
 
 
10-Jan
217,925
113,183
331,108
97,697
428,805
9-Dec
232,586
123,084
355,670
111,567
467,237
9-Nov
228,347
114,283
342,630
105,521
448,151
9-Oct
227,064
119,194
346,258
106,160
452,418
9-Sep
224,924
109,337
334,261
106,103
440,364
9-Aug
249,920
130,623
380,543
112,796
493,339
9-Jul
221,719
108,420
330,139
102,874
433,013
9-Jun
206,358
114,107
320,465
92,882
413,347
9-May
208,591
121,064
329,655
89,900
419,555
9-Apr
199,051
112,976
312,027
96,678
408,705
9-Mar
186,450
117,674
304,124
70,007
374,131
9-Feb
149,299
92,781
242,080
75,962
318,042
9-Jan
200,588
88,510
289,098
110,197
399,295
8-Dec
205,031
94,009
299,040
130,906
429,946
8-Nov
267,840
109,850
377,690
179,769
557,459
8-Oct
292,456
132,521
424,977
170,212
595,189
 
 
  • 1/17/2010:  December’s data is now in and shows sequential improvement in both incoming and out going shipping containers. This is consistent with the rail data from December and the beginning of January, showing improvement. This also is consistent with data on improved inventory re-stocking. A modest recovery is beginning to take hold, outside of government stimulus, lets hope it continues.
 
12/17/2009 STATEMENT: November data is in and the net inbound increase was only 1283 containers. These figures indicate a slowing rate of rise month to month and the real possibility that inbound loads will begin to drop again. This is not a sign of an economy in recovery.
 
October data of inbound 20 foot cargo containers is 227,064. Oct. 2008 was 292,456 a 22.4% decline from last year.   Last year at this time was not exactly a banner period. The 3,000 extra containers added in October, does not a Christmas make. 
 
Also, note that the last 2 months shipments were below August. These cargo containers are related to cross country US rail traffic. If these figures begin to decline, we can assume rail traffic will begin to drop and our Stastical Recovery will waver. If on the other hand cargo containers begin to increase, signaling US demand for components for manufacturing as well as consumer goods, a recovery has begun. Which one are you betting on?


Disclosure: NONE