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LONG BEACH SHIPPING CONTAINER DATA: FEBRUARY

3/11/2010 Statement. I’ve changed the format for reporting the Long Beach data, which has just come out for February 2010. The port of Long Beach uses a total, which includes empties, and I have added a total, which includes just totals for inbound plus out bounds. At the bottom are year to date comparisons and a comparison with shipping 2 years ago.
 
Something very interesting is happening. The inbound loaded has dropped by 4.6% compared to January but is up 28.2% year to date and off 24% compared to 2 years ago. So, pick your time frame and you can report anything you want. Comparisons with last year, when we were at the bottom, seem unfair because they are overstating a recovery. We are still down 24% from the peek and month over month inbounds is not that impressive. In fact have weakened in two successive months.
 
Out bound containers are another story and may account for the pickup in rail shipping which is running at a positive 1.1% month over month.  This indicates a pickup in exports as the US $ related to other currencies is quite low.
 
Overall, this is not a confirmation of real GDP growth, outside of government sponsored GDP growth, which so far has not stimulated a real recovery. Diesel usage is up next and we’ll see what truckers are saying.
 
LONG
BEACH
LONG
TERM
DATA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loaded
Loaded
Total
Empties
Total
Inbound
out bd.
Loaded
 
 
 
 
 
 
10-Feb
207,920
123,208
331,128
82,006
413,134
10-Jan
217,925
113,183
331,108
97,697
428,805
9-Dec
232,586
123,084
355,670
111,567
467,237
9-Nov
228,347
114,283
342,630
105,521
448,151
9-Oct
227,064
119,194
346,258
106,160
452,418
9-Sep
224,924
109,337
334,261
106,103
440,364
9-Aug
249,920
130,623
380,543
112,796
493,339
9-Jul
221,719
108,420
330,139
102,874
433,013
9-Jun
206,358
114,107
320,465
92,882
413,347
9-May
208,591
121,064
329,655
89,900
419,555
9-Apr
199,051
112,976
312,027
96,678
408,705
9-Mar
186,450
117,674
304,124
70,007
374,131
9-Feb
149,299
92,781
242,080
75,962
318,042
9-Jan
200,588
88,510
289,098
110,197
399,295
8-Dec
205,031
94,009
299,040
130,906
429,946
 
                     INBOUND     OUT BD.        TOT LOAD     TOT LOADED
                         YR TO DT.    YR T DT         YR T DT          2 YR T DATE
10-Feb
28.19%
24.70%
26.89%
-23.97%
10-Jan
7.96%
21.80%
12.69%
-15.75%
9-Dec
11.85%
23.62%
15.92%
-19.05%
   
 
1/17/2010 December’s data is now in and shows sequential improvement in both incoming and out going shipping containers. This is consistent with the rail data from December and the beginning of January, showing improvement. This also is consistent with data on improved inventory re-stocking. A modest recovery is beginning to take hold, outside of government stimulus, lets hope it continues.
 
12/17/2009 STATEMENT: November data is in and the net inbound increase was only 1283 containers. These figures indicate a slowing rate of rise month to month and the real possibility that inbound loads will begin to drop again. This is not a sign of an economy in recovery.
 
October data of inbound 20 foot cargo containers is 227,064. Oct. 2008 was 292,456 a 22.4% decline from last year.   Last year at this time was not exactly a banner period. The 3,000 extra containers added in October, does not a Christmas make. 
 
Also, note that the last 2 months shipments were below August. These cargo containers are related to cross country US rail traffic. If these figures begin to decline, we can assume rail traffic will begin to drop and our Stastical Recovery will waver. If on the other hand cargo containers begin to increase, signaling US demand for components for manufacturing as well as consumer goods, a recovery has begun. Which one are you betting on?


Disclosure: none