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5/1/10 WEEKLY RAIL SHIPPING DATA: STEADY IMPROVEMENT CHUGGING ALONG

Below is the updated thirty-week data compilation of 2009/10 rail shipping weekly figures compared to 2008/09. The Delta change illustrates the rate of change between the previous weeks data. The average at the bottom shows how the delta change average is changing over time. Why is this data useful: To track actual economic recovery outside of government stimulus money, which has distorted real GDP growth data.
 
5/7/2010 STATEMENT: All 7 of the industrial groups followed are again positive. Each of the averages followed are continuing to rise, compared to last year. The delta change between weeks is ok. All is ok and the DJI only went down to 9869 yesterday. All is well when you have a 12.33% correction. A good time to buy rail stocks, that is if you could have made the trade, some of mine didn’t trade yesterday afternoon.
 
RAIL TRAFFIC
2010/09 COMPARED TO 2009/08
 
 
 
Yr to Date
 
Current Wk
 
4 Wk Roll Av
DATE
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
 
Change
 
Change
 
Change
5/1/2010
7.1
0.5
15
0.2
15.2
1.6
4/24/2010
6.6
0.5
14.8
-0.7
13.6
0
4/17/2010
6.1
0.7
15.5
0
13.6
2.4
4/10/2010
5.4
0.7
15.5
6.7
11.2
1.8
4/3/2010
4.7
0.3
8.8
-5.8
9.4
-0.1
3/26/2010
4.4
0.9
14.6
8.2
9.5
1.5
3/19/2010
3.5
0.3
6.4
-1.5
8
0.1
3/12/2010
3.2
0.5
7.9
-1.4
7.9
3.2
3/5/2010
2.7
0.8
9.3
1
4.7
1.6
2/27/2010
1.9
1
8.3
2.9
3.1
0.5
2/20/2010
0.9
0.8
5.4
10
2.6
0.4
2/13/2010
0.1
-1
-4.6
-7.6
2.2
-1.5
2/6/2010
1.1
0.4
3
-4.2
3.7
3
1/30/2010
0.7
2.1
7.2
3.7
0.7
1.9
1/23/2010
-1.4
2.9
3.5
3.4
-1.2
0.4
1/16/2010
-4.3
4.3
0.1
8.7
-1.6
-1.1
1/9/2010
-8.6
6.7
-8.6
-8.4
-0.5
-0.2
1/2/2010
-15.3
0.2
-0.2
-5
-0.3
1.3
12/26/2009
-15.5
0.3
4.8
1
-1.6
1.8
12/19/2009
-15.8
0.4
3.8
9.6
-3.4
2.1
12/12/2009
-16.2
0.1
-5.8
-0.9
-5.5
0.4
12/5/2009
-16.3
0.2
-4.9
0
-5.9
1.7
11/28/2009
-16.5
0.2
-4.9
0.4
-7.6
1.8
11/21/2009
-16.7
0.2
-5.3
3.1
-9.4
1.9
11/14/2009
-16.9
0.2
-8.4
2.7
-11.3
1.4
11/7/2009
-17.1
0.2
-11.1
1.5
-12.7
0.9
10/31/2009
-17.3
0.3
-12.6
-0.4
-13.6
0
10/24/2009
-17.6
0.3
-12.2
1.7
-13.6
0.4
11/11/2009
-17.9
0.1
-13.9
1.1
-14
2
10/3/2009
-18
0.1
-15
1.2
-16
1.2
9/26/2009
-18.1
0
-16.2
0
-17.2
0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1/23/2010
AVERAGE=
0.98
AVERAGE=
1.16
AVERAGE=
0.94
1/30/2010
AVERAGE=
1.04
AVERAGE=
1.30
AVERAGE=
0.99
2/6/2010
AVERAGE=
1.01
AVERAGE=
1.01
AVERAGE=
1.10
2/13/2010
AVERAGE=
0.91
AVERAGE=
0.58
AVERAGE=
0.97
2/20/2010
AVERAGE=
0.90
AVERAGE=
1.03
AVERAGE=
0.94
2/27/2010
AVERAGE=
0.91
AVERAGE=
1.11
AVERAGE=
0.92
3/5/2010
AVERAGE=
0.90
AVERAGE=
1.11
AVERAGE=
0.95
3/12/2010
AVERAGE=
0.89
AVERAGE=
1.00
AVERAGE=
1.05
3/19/2010
AVERAGE=
0.86
AVERAGE=
0.90
AVERAGE=
1.01
3/26/2010
AVERAGE=
0.87
AVERAGE=
1.18
AVERAGE=
1.03
4/3/2010
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
0.93
AVERAGE=
0.99
4/10/2010
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
1.13
AVERAGE=
1.01
4/17/2010
AVERAGE=
0.83
AVERAGE=
1.09
AVERAGE=
1.06
4/24/2010
AVERAGE=
0.82
AVERAGE=
1.03
AVERAGE=
1.03
5/1/2010
AVERAGE=
0.81
AVERAGE=
1.01
AVERAGE=
1.05
 
 
4/30/2010 STATEMENT: Missed posting last weeks data, so you can look at the 4/23 statement, for an update. GDP came in at 3.2% (3.5%), nothing to rave about unless you’re a CNBC talking head. All seven of the industrial groups are again positive. The comparisons look good on the surface, however the delta change between weeks is dropping off, as are the weekly averages, compiled at the bottom. This is not a good sign, illustrating internal weakness within the data, across all data fields. We would hope for a stronger GDP and stronger rail data, heading into the summer. 
 
If they kept track of how much gold was being carried over rail maybe the rail data would be better.
 
4/23/2010 STATEMENT: All time frames are looking better. All seven materials components tracked, are doing well, with metals up a whopping 66.8% compared to last year. These are good numbers and confirm an economic recovery is developing.   The average delta change, is still dropping in 2 out of 3 time periods and should be watched.
 
This will be a jobless recovery, as business has used this period to replace all laid off workers with robots or out-sourced (foreign) help. I guess we can all sit back, play Internet poker, drink beer and live off our IRA’s and 401K’s. Ya!
 
4/16 STATEMENT: All things being equal the rail shipping data for the week looks good. Steady improvement is occurring across all three period’s tracked, compared to last year. I’d like to stick with last week’s statement but if rail traffic continues to improve throughout the summer industrial production and GDP will follow.
 
4/11/10 STATEMENT: An interesting relationship is beginning to occur. If you look at the delta change between each week reported data and the floating change in the average of delta change at the bottom of the data, you will notice that the floating average of the weekly delta change is starting to drop off. In essence this is the beginning of an indication of a slowing rate of increase in shipping between weeks. If this persists into the spring it will not bode well for July on, as last year figures in rail traffic begin to improve. Rail traffic must record strong week over week gains to substantiate a real recovery outside of the government printing press.
 
Other than that all 7 groups, including coal are in the green with improving percentages over last year. Gold broke to the upside, at $1161.80 after probing $1162. Any close above $1162 would indicate a test of the old high of $1226. Silver is probing $19 and could break to the upside and break through $20. Point being, that this is not the action you really want to see if all is well in La La Land. It was rumored last week that GS, the monster, a took delivery of physical gold and George Soros’s fund disclosed that they bought more gold but didn’t disclose if it was delivered or future’s contracts. Again, this is not what recoveries are made from, these are bets against paper money, all forms of it, and it’s not a good sign.


Disclosure: NONE