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6/17/10 WEEKLY RAIL SHIPPING DATA RELEASE: RAIL SHIPPING, CHUGGING ALONG AGAIN

June 12th data released. Below is the updated thirty-five-week data compilation of 2009/10 rail shipping weekly figures compared to 2008/09. The Delta change illustrates the rate of change between the previous weeks data. The average at the bottom shows how the delta change average is changing over time. Why is this data useful: To track actual economic recovery outside of government stimulus money, which has distorted real GDP growth data.
 
6/16/2010 STATEMENT: The weekly data from last Friday recovered from the week before. Only forest products are negative. It appears however, that the average delta change is starting to slow. This is apparent in the 4 Wk Roll Ave, which has moved down in the last 3 weeks from 1.04 to .88 as noted at the bottom of the data. This is not a good sign as weekly rail figures lead container and diesel consumption.
 
The Long Beach container data for May was very positive, as was industrial production. Container shipping has improved 18.2% year over year and is only off –5.7% from 2 years ago. With positive PCI diesel data, containers and rail doing ok US GDP should continue around 3%. This is great but still not quite enough to increase employment much and that in turn will adversely effect housing. We are not stalling, but we are not moving ahead quickly enough for a robust recovery.
 
RAIL TRAFFIC
2010/09 COMPARED TO 2009/08
 
 
 
Yr to Date
 
Current Wk
 
4 Wk Roll Av
DATE
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
 
Change
 
Change
 
Change
6/12/2010
8.9
0.2
13.5
10.5
13.5
-0.6
6/5/2010
8.7
-0.2
3
-24.5
14.1
-3
5/29/2010
8.9
0.8
27.5
16
17.1
2.9
5/22/2010
8.1
0.2
11.5
-4.5
14.2
-0.8
5/15/2010
7.9
0.8
16
1
15
-0.2
5/1/2010
7.1
0.5
15
0.2
15.2
1.6
4/24/2010
6.6
0.5
14.8
-0.7
13.6
0
4/17/2010
6.1
0.7
15.5
0
13.6
2.4
4/10/2010
5.4
0.7
15.5
6.7
11.2
1.8
4/3/2010
4.7
0.3
8.8
-5.8
9.4
-0.1
3/26/2010
4.4
0.9
14.6
8.2
9.5
1.5
3/19/2010
3.5
0.3
6.4
-1.5
8
0.1
3/12/2010
3.2
0.5
7.9
-1.4
7.9
3.2
3/5/2010
2.7
0.8
9.3
1
4.7
1.6
2/27/2010
1.9
1
8.3
2.9
3.1
0.5
2/20/2010
0.9
0.8
5.4
10
2.6
0.4
2/13/2010
0.1
-1
-4.6
-7.6
2.2
-1.5
2/6/2010
1.1
0.4
3
-4.2
3.7
3
1/30/2010
0.7
2.1
7.2
3.7
0.7
1.9
1/23/2010
-1.4
2.9
3.5
3.4
-1.2
0.4
1/16/2010
-4.3
4.3
0.1
8.7
-1.6
-1.1
1/9/2010
-8.6
6.7
-8.6
-8.4
-0.5
-0.2
1/2/2010
-15.3
0.2
-0.2
-5
-0.3
1.3
12/26/2009
-15.5
0.3
4.8
1
-1.6
1.8
12/19/2009
-15.8
0.4
3.8
9.6
-3.4
2.1
12/12/2009
-16.2
0.1
-5.8
-0.9
-5.5
0.4
12/5/2009
-16.3
0.2
-4.9
0
-5.9
1.7
11/28/2009
-16.5
0.2
-4.9
0.4
-7.6
1.8
11/21/2009
-16.7
0.2
-5.3
3.1
-9.4
1.9
11/14/2009
-16.9
0.2
-8.4
2.7
-11.3
1.4
11/7/2009
-17.1
0.2
-11.1
1.5
-12.7
0.9
10/31/2009
-17.3
0.3
-12.6
-0.4
-13.6
0
10/24/2009
-17.6
0.3
-12.2
1.7
-13.6
0.4
11/11/2009
-17.9
0.1
-13.9
1.1
-14
2
10/3/2009
-18
0.1
-15
1.2
-16
1.2
9/26/2009
-18.1
0
-16.2
0
-17.2
0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6/12/2010
AVERAGE=
0.77
AVERAGE=
0.85
AVERAGE=
0.88
6/5/2010
AVERAGE=
0.79
AVERAGE=
0.56
AVERAGE=
0.92
5/29/2010
AVERAGE=
0.82
AVERAGE=
1.32
AVERAGE=
1.04
5/22/2010
AVERAGE=
0.82
AVERAGE=
0.87
AVERAGE=
0.98
5/15/2010
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
1.04
AVERAGE=
1.04
5/1/2010
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
1.04
AVERAGE=
1.08
4/24/2010
AVERAGE=
0.85
AVERAGE=
1.07
AVERAGE=
1.06
4/17/2010
AVERAGE=
0.86
AVERAGE=
1.13
AVERAGE=
1.10
 
6/11/2010 STATEMENT: Current week rail data has dropped off a cliff. In the current week time frame the food and forest industrial sectors are now negative and food has turned negative on the four week rolling average. A very weak weekly release, no matter how you cut it. PCI diesel truck figures of +8.89% and Long Beach container data of +18.23% for May were good and support a moderate economic recovery. Rail in the first week in June throws this improvement into question. If this trend continues into June we can look for the PCI, long Beach and industrial production figures to begin to drop pulling down GDP.
 
6/4/2010 STATEMENT: Weekly rail shipping figures for last week have reversed to the upside. All seven of the industrial groups were positive, reversing the previous weeks trend. The delta change between weeks, improved in all three-time periods. This is encouraging, as comparisons to last year will be increasing more difficult to beat.
 
This report is helpful, as last months employment headline numbers were horrible. No, private sector jobs growth but underlying improvement in wages and time worked by the employed. No need to hire anyone yet! Now, the SPX will be locked in a trading range below it’s 200 day moving average and the recent low.