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7/2/10 WEEKLY RAIL SHIPPING DATA RELEASE: RAIL SHIPPING, BEGINNING TO SLOW.

|Includes: BP p.l.c. (BP), LPL, SPY
June 26th data released. Below is the updated thirty-seven-week data compilation of 2009/10 rail shipping weekly figures compared to 2008/09. The Delta change illustrates the rate of change between the previous weeks data. The average at the bottom shows how the delta change average is changing over time. Why is this data useful: To track actual economic recovery outside of government stimulus money, which has distorted real GDP growth data. This, along with Long Beach container shipping and PCI diesel consumption are helpful in judging industrial production output before those figures are released.
 
7/2/2010 STATEMENT: Of the seven industrial groups tracked in the weekly rail data only one was negative. This was food at –1% and lumber moved positive at +.1%. The delta change between weeks has slowed and the average of the delta change is dropping. There is nothing in this that reflects anything but slow GDP growth going forward. A GDP at 3% can’t create a recovery with the stimulus insufficient, misdirected and now the US gove is out of bullets.
 
Our employment picture is anemic with the stimulus applied to banks who have horded the money and stymied any possibility of small business growth. The drop to 34.1 in the hours worked and the 650K people who have stopped looking for work and the 301K household employment data is very distressing. The ISM data dropping to 56.2 from 59 only confirms the slow pace of this recovery. We have spent 800 billion to employ 593,000 citizens. I don’t even have a calculator, which can figure how much money it has costs to get these people employed, but it is an utter disaster. Our president probably knows how screwed up this is and I wonder if he realizes how much he has screwed up. Judging from his trust in BP management I can only assume he is a brilliant man, yet a slow learner, to trusting of big brained sociopath’s.
 
From a trading perspective we are so oversold that it looks like the DJI and the SPX at 1008 may hold as a tradable bottom. But only for trading in a range, in a down trend, with the 200 day MA as the selloff top. Again, this is a very bad sign, and any negative news can now drive the SPX into a new range with the bottom between 950/980. I bought LPL, TC and FBR as trades only, not as buy and holds. Good luck and be careful.
 
RAIL TRAFFIC
2010/09 COMPARED TO 2009/08
 
 
 
Yr to Date
 
Current Wk
 
4 Wk Roll Av
DATE
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
Delta
 
 
Change
 
Change
 
Change
6/26/2010
9.3
0.2
15.2
1
11.5
-2.7
6/19/2010
9.1
0.2
14.2
0.7
14.2
0.7
6/12/2010
8.9
0.2
13.5
10.5
13.5
-0.6
6/5/2010
8.7
-0.2
3
-24.5
14.1
-3
5/29/2010
8.9
0.8
27.5
16
17.1
2.9
5/22/2010
8.1
0.2
11.5
-4.5
14.2
-0.8
5/15/2010
7.9
0.8
16
1
15
-0.2
5/1/2010
7.1
0.5
15
0.2
15.2
1.6
4/24/2010
6.6
0.5
14.8
-0.7
13.6
0
4/17/2010
6.1
0.7
15.5
0
13.6
2.4
4/10/2010
5.4
0.7
15.5
6.7
11.2
1.8
4/3/2010
4.7
0.3
8.8
-5.8
9.4
-0.1
3/26/2010
4.4
0.9
14.6
8.2
9.5
1.5
3/19/2010
3.5
0.3
6.4
-1.5
8
0.1
3/12/2010
3.2
0.5
7.9
-1.4
7.9
3.2
3/5/2010
2.7
0.8
9.3
1
4.7
1.6
2/27/2010
1.9
1
8.3
2.9
3.1
0.5
2/20/2010
0.9
0.8
5.4
10
2.6
0.4
2/13/2010
0.1
-1
-4.6
-7.6
2.2
-1.5
2/6/2010
1.1
0.4
3
-4.2
3.7
3
1/30/2010
0.7
2.1
7.2
3.7
0.7
1.9
1/23/2010
-1.4
2.9
3.5
3.4
-1.2
0.4
1/16/2010
-4.3
4.3
0.1
8.7
-1.6
-1.1
1/9/2010
-8.6
6.7
-8.6
-8.4
-0.5
-0.2
1/2/2010
-15.3
0.2
-0.2
-5
-0.3
1.3
12/26/2009
-15.5
0.3
4.8
1
-1.6
1.8
12/19/2009
-15.8
0.4
3.8
9.6
-3.4
2.1
12/12/2009
-16.2
0.1
-5.8
-0.9
-5.5
0.4
12/5/2009
-16.3
0.2
-4.9
0
-5.9
1.7
11/28/2009
-16.5
0.2
-4.9
0.4
-7.6
1.8
11/21/2009
-16.7
0.2
-5.3
3.1
-9.4
1.9
11/14/2009
-16.9
0.2
-8.4
2.7
-11.3
1.4
11/7/2009
-17.1
0.2
-11.1
1.5
-12.7
0.9
10/31/2009
-17.3
0.3
-12.6
-0.4
-13.6
0
10/24/2009
-17.6
0.3
-12.2
1.7
-13.6
0.4
11/11/2009
-17.9
0.1
-13.9
1.1
-14
2
10/3/2009
-18
0.1
-15
1.2
-16
1.2
9/26/2009
-18.1
0
-16.2
0
-17.2
0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6/26/2010
AVERAGE=
0.74
AVERAGE=
0.85
AVERAGE=
0.78
6/19/2010
AVERAGE=
0.76
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
0.87
6/12/2010
AVERAGE=
0.77
AVERAGE=
0.85
AVERAGE=
0.88
6/5/2010
AVERAGE=
0.79
AVERAGE=
0.56
AVERAGE=
0.92
5/29/2010
AVERAGE=
0.82
AVERAGE=
1.32
AVERAGE=
1.04
5/22/2010
AVERAGE=
0.82
AVERAGE=
0.87
AVERAGE=
0.98
5/15/2010
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
1.04
AVERAGE=
1.04
5/1/2010
AVERAGE=
0.84
AVERAGE=
1.04
AVERAGE=
1.08
4/24/2010
AVERAGE=
0.85
AVERAGE=
1.07
AVERAGE=
1.06
4/17/2010
AVERAGE=
0.86
AVERAGE=
1.13
AVERAGE=
1.10
 
 
6/19/2010 STATEMENT: On the surface the weekly rail figures continue to look ok, however the average change of delta between weeks is dropping in all 3 time frames looked at, (see the average figures below). This change between weeks is a prelude to lack luster industrial growth. The rubber is hitting the road here, as year to date figures compared to last year will be harder and harder to beat. Also, grain turned negative, (first time in a while) along with food, of the 7 industrial groups followed.
 
Welcome to jive economics, it works much better when last year was easy to beat. Meanwhile, the DJ dropped 400 and the SPX hitting 1067, critical support and testing the bottom and also washing out a few of my stops, (AKS, UNG and GRS). Good luck next week and be careful.
 
6/16/2010 STATEMENT: The weekly data from last Friday recovered from the week before. Only forest products are negative. It appears however, that the average delta change is starting to slow. This is apparent in the 4 Wk Roll Ave, which has moved down in the last 3 weeks from 1.04 to .88 as noted at the bottom of the data. This is not a good sign as weekly rail figures lead container and diesel consumption.
 
The Long Beach container data for May was very positive, as was industrial production. Container shipping has improved 18.2% year over year and is only off –5.7% from 2 years ago. With positive PCI diesel data, containers and rail doing ok US GDP should continue around 3%. This is great but still not quite enough to increase employment much and that in turn will adversely effect housing. We are not stalling, but we are not moving ahead quickly enough for a robust recovery.
 
6/11/2010 STATEMENT: Current week rail data has dropped off a cliff. In the current week time frame the food and forest industrial sectors are now negative and food has turned negative on the four week rolling average. A very weak weekly release, no matter how you cut it. PCI diesel truck figures of +8.89% and Long Beach container data of +18.23% for May were good and support a moderate economic recovery. Rail in the first week in June throws this improvement into question. If this trend continues into June we can look for the PCI, long Beach and industrial production figures to begin to drop pulling down GDP.
 


Disclosure: lpl, fbr, tc