Crash Predictions For Individual Stocks
Summary
- The Prefered Public Portfolio and 20 Widely Held Stocks.
Note: This post does not constitute financial/investment advice. Advice should be sought from fiduciary professionals who can take individual investor charactersitics and circumstances into account. Warnings issued about changes in stock market prices are based on historical data, which may not necessarily reflect future price movements.
Earlier today, the first Exact Macro Market Monitor US stock crash warning was issued, based on a spiking principal indicator signalling a 13% crash in the S&P 500 index over the coming several weeks, with an estimated 94% probability, using history as a guide.
However, we are in unique circumstances, in some respects, given that since last summer the Fed now targets an average inflation rate of 2% rather than a flat 2%, and also that the Fed is engaging in various unusual pandemic-related economic support programs. This could mean the Fed provides more support fot the economy than in prior similar circumstances. It will be interesting to see what happens.
The above predictions for related changes in individual stocks were facilitated by the demo software recently developed, a user version of which is under development and will soon be introduced. It will allow users to load their stock portfolio holdings and see what effect, in this case, a 13% drop in the S&P 500 index, representing a .38% fall in the growth path of NGDP, would be predicted to have on their individual holdings and overall portfolios.
In the meantime, feel free to email me at mike@exactmacro.com with any questions or comments you may have.
Note: This post does not constitute financial/investment advice. Advice should be sought from fiduciary professionals who can take individual investor charactersitics and circumstances into account. Warnings issued about changes in stock market prices are based on historical data, which may not necessarily reflect future price movements.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long AMZN GOOG TSLA MSFT UBER LYFT MU VGT VOO.
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