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Current Market Positioning, Best Stocks And Outlook

|Includes: Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD), GBTC, GLD, KL, SH, SPY, TSLA
Summary

I am long S&P but expect that to change within the next year.

I am waiting for gold and silver to probably fall further before becoming bullish.

Top picks include Kirkland Lake, Tesla.

Top trend include 5G, Cryptocurrencies.

Overview

A lot goes on all the time... In real life and even more so in the news.

Therefore, to keep things simple and focus on the most sucessful potential trades is what I consider the art of investing.

I follow experts (entrepreneurs, investors, authors with great track records) in various financial fields and weave things together.

Roundup: S&P, Gold, Markets

S&P e.g. via SPY, SH:

A major (intermediary) market top for the S&P is currently months away, however, hitting 3011, 3047, or 3225 looks like very likely turning points into a correction. Therefore I will monitor developments closely and likely go short then with a probable target of a minimum pullback to around 2575 or maximum pullback to around 2100-2000 points. There is a slight chance of the pullback only going back to around the 2750 region. At present I am long with a small position.

Gold via GLD:

At present I expect another pullback to around 109 - 105 as the most likely outcome. This will probably lead to a bullish trend reversal. There is a less likely outcome of GLD rising forcefully through 116-117 and erasing the expectation for a lower low.

Either way, a forceful bull market both from a technical as well as from a fundamental perspective looks many months away, more likely not before 2019. However, longterm over the next few years I expect a major bull run to start and will continue monitoring. Silver will likely follow gold, and outperform once the bull market is on its way. Currently I am not invested.

Best Individual Stocks: Kirland Lake, Tesla

Kirkland Lake KL:

I am observing the current correction and am interested in taking a long position as soon as the stock price enters a healthy uptrend again, coupled with a trend reversal in gold prices.

Why: Kirland Lake is already earning a lot of money, has no debt, has great investors, is a low cost gold producer, is located in safe jurisdictions and increased guidance once again. However, the best part is aparently the deeper they go in their Australian mine, the higher the gold grade gets. That means even more profits at a similar cost structure. 

Tesla TSLA:

I am delighted with Tesla's current drop in share price. As of today, it broke support around 280 US $ and continued lower. As soon as there is a trend reversal I will go long, possibly within days or weeks.

Why: I expect the production ramp up and the turnaround to profitability to happen. I expect higher earnings, in fact way higher earnings than what is analyst consensus, starting in Q3 und Q4 2018. I have a stock price target of a minimum of 600 US $, and possibly up to 1000 - 1400 US $ on the basis of my earnings expectations by the end of 2019. The biggest factor I will be watching when considering exiting the trade will be when the S&P and other major markets are turning bearish.

Trends:

5G:

I am currently watching the unfolding trend and related companies around the 5G technology.

Why: Presently, it seems clear that this trend is coming. The question doesn't seem to be "if" but only "when" or "how fast." I will keep educating myself around the potentially biggest gainers. 

Cryptocurrencies:

As long as bitcoin trades above 6000 US $, the bear market is over. However, I don't expect a forceful move up within the next few months.

Why: To be honest, this is a bit of a speculation. I have heard many bulls and bears. However, operating with a stop loss I expect potential gains could far exceed potential losses, even after the run up in 2017. I see another leg up coming with a possibility of institutional investors investing through stock markets 2019 and generally more people investing in years to come. I see a lot of cryptocurrencies failing, with a few big winners. I am long Bitcoin OTCQX:GBTC , BTC-USD, and some altcoins with a moderate position.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY, BTC-USD.

Additional disclosure: Additional Disclosure: I am/we are long S&P via leveraged products. I am/we are long several altcoins.