NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The news that the sovereign wealth fund of Dubai requested a postponement of billions of dollars of debt this week could pose a big problem for U.S. banks...
...Bove said the underlying problem is that there is a lot of uncertainty floating around. For example, there's little information available about counterparty derivatives, guarantees that transfer default risk from lenders to other financial institutions. And it's unknown how much of Dubai World's debt guarantee is held by U.S. banks. Read More...
Stock Market Investing: The above story along with many others have filled the airwaves and blogosphere over the last 4 days. I will refrain from adding my voice to the din. Moreover, endeavoring to postulate on the repercussions seems to me a fool's errand. The sheer plethora of moving parts and back room deals makes a supposition worthless.
I will, however, offer some insight to a more pressing question: How will this event effect the US$, the equity markets and the price of Gold?
An avid reader of this blog will find the answer both simple and familiar. Bad news on the global economic front equates to good news for the U.S. equity markets and the price of precious metals, Gold and Silver.
Investment Strategy: The legend for deciphering this market environment:
Neg.Eco.News = Con't.Q.E.; (Q.E. = Quantitative Easing; catchall for liquidity creation)
Con't.Q.E. = Con't.US$.Dval.; (US$. Dval = US$ devaluation)
Con't. US$.Dval = Exponential Gold and Silver price increases + higher US equity prices
This legend, in all likelihood, will remain in force until major policy changes occur within the White House, U.S. Treasury and Fed. Never in history has the systematic devaluation of a currency led to sustained economic recovery and long-term growth. However, without fail, said devaluation leads to inflation, often hyperinflation, and a flight out of the currency into hard assets. The move unfolding in the price of Gold and Silver will be for most unimaginable, but for the few, the proud, the aware, it will be a move of a lifetime.