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Stay Away From Northwest Bio

Summary

Release of interim data is latest attempt to secure more toxic financing.

Still no explanation from management of why the trial was halted when financing was abundant.

Still no explanation from management why there are no plans to unblind data.

Information from the interim data release does nothing to change the outcome of the trial from a highly speculative gamble.

Market reaction to the interim data paper is muted, most likely due to the reasons listed above.

   Any reader of Seeking Alpha's NWBO articles are fully aware of the promises of what many hope is some of the best frontier medicine on the planet. Harnessing an individual's immune system to fight one of the worst cancers known to man and being able to expand on this horizon should arguably come with multi-billion dollar market caps. If we can succeed in beating brain cancer, the sky is the limit, and so must be the share prices.

   Back to reality. Northwest Bio managed to start a few trials over a decade ago with the same technology that has been tried and tried with little proof of any real benefit. Only this time, it would work because NWBO had a much stronger version of the previously not so much immunotherapy vaccines. Former Enron employee Linda Powers was able to convince enough people that this time was different, and the market cap managed to come in at a cool billion dollars. Some big investors jumped on the guaranteed money train, you know the names, and all that was left to do was sit back and watch this therapy work.  

   Fast forward 12 years. Investors are all but wiped out due to repeated, out of nowhere dilutive financings. Management over the last 4-5 years has been on radio silence. There is enough pumping from the biotech community on the message boards and elsewhere to keep the dream of billions in windfall alive, even if the only time Linda and a couple others who comprise the management team of this would be whale release another filing announcing how they sold a quarter of the company's equity at 17 cents a share to themselves. Read that again. There are no investors willing to put money into this company other than the captain of this sinking ship. Linda knows this self dealing scheme will lure enough retail money to keep paying her salary so that hopefully she can sell this company for a song but have enough of an equity stake to live to gamble another day. Linda has a lifeboat. You do not.

   In the latest attempt to get management closer to shore, equity was burned so that interim data could be released in the form of a publication, all official and such, touting the dream of a new SOC for Glioblastoma, and FDA approval is all but guaranteed. What's really in this publication is nothing more than proof that SOC has changed so much over the last decade that it's hard to know what is working for whom without totally unblinding the data which management refuses to do. All the money spent on what amounts to a retelling of what the investigators already know but not a single word, not one word, on why the trial was halted. Or how they plan to complete it. Or why the SEC wanted full blown discovery into this tiny little biotech.

   The science here, or lack thereof, has been beaten to death by shareholders who want to profit from the success of this company's phase 3 trial. I used to be one of those shareholders. Then one day I realized that NWBO had done nothing more than play on people's fear of cancer and the horrible treatment that follows diagnosis. Most of us are terrified of cancer. Even those of us who do not have it. Like certain big name investors. After all, it is the invisible monster, and the worst part is the treatment that many argue kills us anyway. There has been enough fear and greed to keep this rat on the wheel. At least, long enough for the release of a "publication" by people who pay their $4000 mortgages by contributing to such documents.

   Those of you who had the stomach to buy at 14 cents, I congratulate you. You doubled your money and that is not an easy thing to do. For the rest of us, there is a reason this so called publication was only good enough for a few percentage point bounce. As the trial runs on and on and on, the only thing that is guaranteed is massive dilution from Cognate. There is one lifeboat, and Linda has already purchased rights to it.

Stay away from Northwest Bio.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.