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Friday July 28th, 2017


No new ATH SPX nor SPX A-D but had one for my Cumulative Technicals Model

SPX Weekly and Daily, along with my model support a major market top at any time

One of my 2 Swing trade signals went BEARISH today and the other is weakening quickly

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No new All Time High for SPX today, nor its A-D line. My proprietary Technicals Model however did make a new ATH. Today my trusty swing trade signal went BEARISH, while the other one based on my Technicals Model is still slightly BULLISH (daily values of the model remain positive but have been weakening quickly). SPX McClellan did make a negative print today.

SPX Weekly and Daily would support a major top at anytime due to long lasting negative divergences. Yet I am skeptical that the ATH on Thursday with a Doji candle would have been THE TOP. The SPX hourly chart has been recovering from the drop midday Thursday, one that came a few days after I had been expecting it. At today's highs, none of the technical indicators are negatively diverging. That suggests more likely than not a higher high is coming soon after a pullback.

VIX remains on a Hourly MACD BUY signal given Wednesday, spiking Thursday. Lots of selling of VIX last few trading hours yet it finished higher. With no negative divergences at this scale at Thursday's peak it is more likely than not to continue a bit higher before reversing trend.

SPX Daily had a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. Yet another higher high in SPX is still possible to once again negatively diverge with my model, but you can clearly see that the technical indicators on SPX stocks are weakening quickly.

Internals, Breadth and Participation, well off of recent highs, have been pulling back.

Been calling this Oil rally pretty well. Another strong day, closing above its 200 dma for the first time since May 24 2017, as well as closing above its Bollinger Band. Only negative divergence seen on the hourly chart is MACD histogram, so new highs are ahead more likely than not.

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Disclosure: I am/we are short SPY.

Additional disclosure: Long 401(k)