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Monday August 14th, 2017

Summary

Expected bounce for SPX

VIX drops as expected

Oil needs to turn for new highs

SPX made a significant bounce as alluded to on Friday today, closing just below its 20 dma. Volume was lower. SPX hourly chart shows how quickly it sliced back up through all pivots and resistance lines lost during last week's downdraft. A few negative divergences occurred at today's top so a pullback is likely here before a likely new recent high. VIX cratered as I suspected on Friday, but should continue lower as it only made 1 minor positive divergence at today's lows.

Both my swing trading signals remain BEARISH (since 7/28 and 7/31). Internals improved today, yet maintain a downward trend. Likewise for participation. SPX A-D line did spike above its descending 20 dma, remember it did not confirm the last SPX All Time High. The SPX McClellan was improved but still made its 11th negative reading in the past 12.

My proprietary Technicals Model was a little higher today, but still made its 6th negative reading during the past 7 days. This is the chart of the day and I will display it below.

HYG:IEF bounced back into its Bollinger Band but remains well below all major moving averages. Plus no positive divergences were made at its bottom last week so its most likely still in a downtrend. Oil had a big loss today, probably money rotating back over to stocks. I am surprised the consolidation/pullback has taken this long, for my theory of new oil highs to be correct, it needs to turn around soon.

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