In today's shortened post, I show that even at the SPX close, VIX hourly MACD still had a BUY signal. And with positive divergences secured last Friday, this BUY signal is more likely to work our for VIX BULLS. I also show SPX hourly post missile test, how it has pulled back to the 2428 pivot. I also introduce a potential Elliott Wave count I have been mulling over in my head, a nested 1-2, 1-2 from the top, now entering a wave 3 lower?
Most other parameters showed little change during market hours. I would like to once again comment on how oil is very weak despite a major tropical system shutting down many gulf rigs.
Tuesday 8/22 I decided to go short via SPX Oct Puts near the close. Looks like I got in too early, but suspect that this larger downturn is not complete. All my 401k remains in interest cash accounts.
All Summer I have been warning on the lead-up to the new SPX All Time High that a major top was coming. This was based on my proprietary Technicals Model which had been negatively diverging at times since mid April, and about 10 pre-top Hindenburg Omens. I also wrote about the historically narrow SPX Daily Bollinger Bands (going back to 1970) and very low readings coming from my statistically driven Volatility Model. Low volatility like this can proceed large moves. Then came a sweet SPX reversal candle on August 8th.
Zero Hindenburg Omens on the SPX last week, but many have occurred since June. Read more about it under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. But just as a refresher, they mainly come before major tops, can occur during significant downdrafts and rarely do trigger at important bottoms. I am classifying the 5 that came after SPX ATH as the second category.
Did you get to enjoy the total solar eclipse on August 21st? Well there was also a Black Moon on 8/21 (third New Moon in a season with four New Moons). Read about Puetz Crash Windows under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. It doesn't say a crash must occur in these conditions, just that the more significant ones tend to across all markets. The previous FULL moon was on 8/7 which was 1 day before the SPX ATH, and the next one is Sept 6th.
Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketsto...) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.
I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (GOLD) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!
Disclosure: I am/we are short SPY.
Additional disclosure: Cash 410k