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Friday January 12th, 2018



SPX and SPX A-D new all time highs.

My Technicals Model as crazy hot as autumn 2017, no other runs even close since 2006.

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My proprietary Technicals Model has been up for the 39th day in a row, closely matching a similar run in the autumn of 2017. Going back to 2006 I do not see any other winning streaks nearly this long. Major market momentum at play here!

As of Friday Jan 5th both of my swing trade signals are BULLISH, yes much much too late this time.

HYG:IEF formed negative divergences across the board with its peak on 10/25. It is now making a run higher above all major resistance. Watch here to see if it can get above October peak levels.

SPX Weekly is strong as ever, with only negative divergencs on ADX +DI and MACD histogram. SPX daily hit All Time Highs today. Negative divergences remain for only RSI since March 2017. Countless Hindenburg Omens have occurred since this past summer. Still feel its likely that the next top will be a SIGNIFICANT TOP. At the All Time Highs, SPX hourly shows negative divergences back to late November for many indicators, therefore I am expecting SPX to turn lower soon.

My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 39th day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1's peak vs. SPX, foretelling of this bullish run. On 11/30 it fell just short of making a Technicals Thrust. The Cumulative version of the Technicals Model made a new All Time High 1/12. My statistically driven Volatility Model is starting to expand during this near SPX price jump.

VIX finished higher, on a hourly MACD BUY signal. At the recent lows, there was only 1 positive divergence on the hourly chart so this run-up is not expected to be long or strong, and at 1/9's highs only 1 negative divergence was spotted. On the 15-min chart, at the peak on 1/9 there were no negative divergences so I wouldn't be surprised if this uptrend continues in the very short term at least.

Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators, were mostly all higher today. Many of these are in positive territory, yet are well off peaks from last year. SPX A-D line made a new All Time High on 1/12, obviously above its 20 dma which is rising. SPX McClellan has been positive for the 9th day in a row.

Economically, while most talking heads are yammering about the downward trend in 10Y-2Y (The Yield Curve is flattening to 2007 levels), my work dating back to 1990 using the slope of linear regression at all maturity levels shows since 2010 the yield curve has been rising (Bullish Economy) and is well off the levels that foretold a recession in 2000 and 2007. In fact, rising to these levels, matches up well with 2005, 1997 and 1995. Not bad years for stocks, eh?