Hello everyone! My complete blog post at 'http://navigatethemarketsto...' is open to the public each weekend. If you like the post, you can sign up for a FREE subscription to view this analysis daily at the bottom my blog post! To concentrate my efforts on my health and development, posting to this blog will only be done twice weekly, each Wednesday and for the Weekend.
My proprietary Technicals Model has been up for the 43rd day in a row, the longest streak since I started calculations in 2006. Major market momentum at play here!
As of Friday Jan 5th both of my swing trade signals are BULLISH, yes much much too late this time.
HYG:IEF has broken October peak levels, and not far off from March 2017. Very key chart!
SPX daily hit All Time Highs today. Negative divergences remain for RSI and ADX DI during the past week. Countless Hindenburg Omens have occurred since this past summer. Still feel its likely that the next top will be a SIGNIFICANT TOP. At the All Time Highs, SPX hourly shows negative divergences back to late November for many indicators, therefore I am expecting SPX to turn lower soon.
My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 43rd day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1's peak vs. SPX, foretelling of this bullish run. On 11/30 it fell just short of making a Technicals Thrust. The Cumulative version of the Technicals Model made a new All Time High 1/17. My statistically driven Volatility Model is contracting but for how long, nobody knows.
VIX finished much lower, on a hourly MACD SELL signal. Negative divergences seen at the recent top on the hourly chart and especially the 15-min chart indicating lower VIX should be coming in the short term, and it sure has!
Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators, were mixed today. Many of these are in positive territory, yet are well off peaks from last year. SPX A-D line made a new All Time High on 1/19, obviously above its 20 dma which is rising. SPX McClellan has been positive for the 13th day in a row.
Economically, while most talking heads are yammering about the downward trend in 10Y-2Y (The Yield Curve is flattening to 2007 levels), my work dating back to 1990 using the slope of linear regression at all maturity levels shows since 2010 the yield curve has been rising (Bullish Economy) and is well off the levels that foretold a recession in 2000 and 2007. In fact, rising to these levels, matches up well with 2005, 1997 and 1995. Not bad years for stocks, eh?