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Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 17, 2009

Euro Dollar

The euro broke above the rising trend channel for the first time, reaching a new high for this year at 1.4746, and leaving any expectation for a correction to start in these areas, in very bad shape. A break to the upside in a rising channel is usually a signal that shows how powerful the uptrend is, which makes it only logical to expect more gains for the European single currency. But it is required to stay above 1.4702 to be able to achieve these gains. If the Euro holds above the broken channel, it would be expected to advance to areas above 1.48, specially 14824 and 1.4880. It is very important to hold above this channel which is at 1.4702 now. If we fall back below this level we could see a good move trying to get far from the top of the channel and targeting 1.4641 and below. It is very important to keep an eye on 1.4702 today!

• 1.4702: the top of the broken channel.
• 1.4641: yesterday's low.
• 1.4560: Sep 15th high.
• 1.4766: previous daily high
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4880: previous daily low.


Dollar-Yen broke the 90.77 support and reached a new bottom only pips below the previous one, before it managed to bounce up. What happened yesterday had two effects. First: the area containing the previous bottom 90.19 & yesterday's bottom 90.11 has provided itself as a good support area.  Second: the calculation of Fibonacci resistance has slightly changed, and the new Fibonacci retracement levels are 91.32, 91.70 and 92.07. the return above 91 after reaching yesterday's low shows that the dollar has not given up yet, and that it could try again to reach one of the Fibonacci levels mentioned above. The top of the channel is currently at 91.49 (between Fibonacci 38.2% and 61.8% levels). Short-term important support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterday's low, which is at  90.58 and breaking it would probably mean we are going to beak 90.11 and reach a new low below 90 before the weekend.

• 90.58: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term.
• 90.11: short-term support.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

• 91.70: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
• 92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

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