Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, 2009
Traders await tomorrow's release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.
The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's reading to stand at 92.50, and increase from last month's 91.90.
The Euro dropped and broke the specified support in Friday’s report 1.4877, successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.4820. But it stayed above the most important support 1.4786. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts, and if broken we will get another chance to test 1.4786 after Friday’s attempt that stopped at 1.4800. The above mentioned support will stay the most important, especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this level. Short-term resistance is 1.4952, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.
• 1.4881: the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
• 1.4952: the falling trendline from 1.5047.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range on Friday, without any technically significant moves! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 89.05 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10
• 88.72: Nov 17th low.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.
• 89.05: the moving average SMA100.
• 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 90.73: intraday top.
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