Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. Daily Analysis - 22/12/2009

Fundamental Analysis: Monetary Policy Committee

The Bank of England (NYSE:BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (NYSE:MPC) Meeting Minutes will be published tomorrow (Dec 23). The minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier.
It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK.
It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee
If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.


Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.4303, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, and settled for closing on Friday’s low 1.4260, as yesterday’s low was 1.4264. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4357 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Friday’s low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4260 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4176 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4085. A break of today’s most important resistance 1.4357 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4596.

• 1.4260: Friday’s low.
• 1.4176: Sep 1st low.
• 1.4085: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart.

• 1.4357: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
• 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
• 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4260.



Exactly as we have expected, the drop to 90.22 was just a short-term corrective drop, and the price resumed rising short after, to areas above 90.90 as we said in yesterday’s report. Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in yesterday’s report 90.46 and successfully reached the first suggested target 91.30. But, has trouble started for this rising move? We can see on the attached chart that the price hardly reached any area above the moving average SMA100, and stopped close to the trend line. Thus, we expect the Dollar to settle for the previously harvested gains, and to start going down from the current levels. Short-term resistance is 91.30, and breaking it would target 91.93 first, and then the important 92.31. But what is expected is the opposite of that: the resistance should hold, and the price should start dropping toward short-term support 90.99, and if we break it we will head towards 90.32 and then 89.50.

• 90.99: intraday support.
• 90.32: previous important intraday top.
• 89.50: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.46.

• 91.30: Nov 4th high.
• 91.93: Sep 3rd low.
• 92.31: Oct 27th high.


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