Monday Evening 25 April 2011
Back on 13 April, we were looking for a potential turning point,
and in fact went short, for a short period of time. [See S & P -
At A Turning Point?, click on http://bit.ly/hsgGjh3]. Half the short
position had been covered, and the other half was covered next
day when price did not have downside follow-through. There was
a turning point, but it was to have the market turn back to the
upside, and that brings us to the present tense.
The top horizontal line represents the high when March was the
lead contract back in February. [See S & P - What Is In A Name? ,
click on bit.lyhoQkq0, first paragraph after first chart]. The current June contract has returned to its previous highs, February
and a few weeks ago. It is apparent that after a strong three day
rally, price has stalled with small ranges and declining volume at
the area of obvious resistance. The last bar is the Monday evening
session going into Tuesday, so Monday's bar, second from the end,
shows yet again a lack of demand, and also a lack of selling that
would extend the range lower.
The longer price hangs around resistance, as opposed to moving
down and away from it, the greater the likelihood it will be broken.
There is a minor conflict in reading the developing market activity
up here. On the plus side, price is starting to consolidate, holding
at the upper end of the rally, instead of correcting a bit lower. The
former is a greater sign of strength.
On the negative side, and not too negative, price is beginning to
cluster around 1330. When price begins to cluster, it can turn into
a turning point. The reason why this is not too negative is that we
are only looking at two days, and price could be engaging in a
resting spell, just prior to going higher. As was stated in "What Is
In A Name? article, the weekly chart shows a greater momentum
for new highs, based on the OKRs mentioned.
A new high could be brief, as in a failed probe that reverses, or a
new high on strength that could resume the uptrend to the 1350 +/-
area, to as much as 1441, a retest of the January 2008 high that
also led to the March low at 665. However improbable it may seem,
given the lack of strong up bars and strong volume on rallys, the
improbable may become likely, absent the failed probe potential.
Waiting for clarity.