Get Ready For EUR/USD Roller-Coaster Moves

Summary

• The euro has recovered from the previous week’s low of $1.0925.
• According to the consensus expectations, the ECB is ready to administer another shot of stimulating measures to the weakening European economy.
• However, this time may be different as euro retains bullish potential in case Mario Draghi and Co fails to impress the market with something truly nuclear.

  The euro has recovered from the previous week’s low of $1.0925; however, the upside potential of the single currency is limited as the market players prefer to postpone the investment decision before the European Central Bank delivers its monetary policy decision. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is changing hands at $1.1035, unchanged from this time on Tuesday.

  According to the consensus expectations, the ECB is ready to administer another shot of stimulating measures to the weakening European economy. The central bank is likely to cut interest rate and extend its bond-buying program. These measures usually produce a bearish effect of currencies as they lead to a reduced return on the assets denominated in such currency.

  However, this time may be different as euro retains bullish potential in case Mario Draghi and Co fails to impress the market with something truly nuclear. Moreover, if investors sense that the ECB has not been bold enough, the initial market reaction may be brutal with EUR/USD moving above $1.11 in a matter of minutes.

  This scenario is confirmed by the developments on the options markets, where traders are pricing in 0.15% cut in deposit rate and a relaunch of the central bank’s asset-purchasing program.