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US debt rating downgrade forecast as soon as 2013: America's looming Greek Tragedy

Moody's has run numbers based on CBO budget deficit projections and their own debt service risk tolerances that forecast a US Treasuries ratings downgrade sometime between 2013 and 2018.  Moody's considers debt payments to only be AAA quality up to 18-20% of tax revenue.  Under CBO numbers the Obama budget is scheduled to hit that figure by 2018.  Under a more pessimistic assumption that assumes higher interest rates the hit the fan moment happens in 2013.  A ratings downgrade would lead to an interest rate spike resulting in potentially unaffordable payments-the Greek tragedy.

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