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XAUUSD (GOLD) Should Continue To Sell Off: Short Tf (4hr) Analysis

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) should continue to sell off this week.

An intermediate wave degree i.e. wave (X) must be completed first before the sell off.

Price action for GOLD (XAUUSD) terminated a Primary wave i.e. wave (C) at the close on Jan 25, 2018. Price swing from this pivot ~$1365.95 on Jan 25, 2018 up to a low of ~$1309.59 on March 1, 2018 can be observed to have completed a 3 wave move best described by a regular flat Elliott wave structure.

It appears that XAUUSD is currently completing a minor wave B position after which a minor wave C should see price return to the target area marked on the chart. Target area is between ~$1348.05 and $1343.38.

Gold 4hr tf analysis

Completion of minor wave C will also complete at intermediate wave (NYSE:X), which implies that XAUUSD should sell off and return to at least the low of March 1 2018 at ~$1309.59.

If XAUUSD holds in the target area, the entire move from Jan. 25, 2018 is therefore going to shape up as a WXY move.

Projections that can be used to take profit = the termination point of a wave Y based on a wave W are the following:

wave Y = 161.8% wave W or

wave Y = 100%wave W (this is more conservative)

POI = Point of invalidation for the 4hr tf analysis i.e. Price closing above 1359.58

P.S. Price swing as used by the author is to describe the overall trend in price. It does not equate to an Elliott wave move or structure.

Analysis was carried out using OANDA FX’s data, so prices quoted above might defer slightly depending on your broker.


Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in XAUUSD over the next 72 hours.