This Probably Isn't The Top
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2018
Summary
- Many People Are Trying to Call the Top.
- Treasury Bond ETFs Do Not Support This View.
- Defensive Sectors are Lagging the Market.
- https://mareamarketmusings.substack.com/.
I am going to try something new here. I write a lot. Six notes a week for my firm’s clients and five notes a week here. It’s actually pretty funny because I do not consider myself to to be a good writer. I have actually toyed with the idea of taking a class…I am open to suggestions if you want to leave them in the comments.
About three - four times a week, I record a video in the middle of the day with my updated thoughts on the markets and what I am seeing, hearing and reading. They go up on the firm’s blog. Yesterday afternoon, I wanted to highlight the fact that I had noticed an uptick in the number of people who I follow, and whose work I like, calling for a bit of cautiousness or even calling a top. I am not going to single anyone out as I have had that done to me by someone recently who did not agree with my views.
The important thing to keep in mind here is that just because I like someone’s work and happen to think that the person is smart, does not mean that I have to agree with them all the time. The other important item that I do consider when someone speaks is to understand their base state…meaning do they tend to default to a bullish or bearish stance at base. There are many people who are always bullish, we call them perma-bulls and there are people who are always bearish who we call perma-bears. We don’t pay attention to either of these groups because if you can’t change your mind, I don’t really want to listen to you. By the way, the person who singled me out on their site admits that he has been bearish on the equity market since 2009…not a type-o. He has been bearish for 12 years. The S&P 500 is up ~322% since the beginning of 2009.
Interestingly, many of the people who are now calling a top or becoming cautious are not perma-bears, but I still disagree. So I recorded a video yesterday about why I don’t think this is the top.
Let me know what you think.
Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Dan Russo is the Chief Market Strategist at Chaikin Analytics where he writes the Daily Market Insights newsletter and provides thematic trading and investment ideas for clients. Dan is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the CMT Association. He holds an MBA in finance with an international designation from Fordham University. Disclaimer: Chaikin Analytics LLC is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Chaikin Analytics does not recommend the purchase of any stock, ETF or advise on the suitability of any trade. The information presented is generic in nature and is not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, advice or any offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any kind, but solely as information requiring further research as to suitability, accuracy and appropriateness. Users bear sole responsibility for their own stock research and decisions. Read the entire disclaimer in our terms and conditions.
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