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Natural Gas Looks Ready For A Breakout Amid Growing Geopolitics


EIA's monthly energy report outlook on June 29th, 2018.

Weather announcement for warmer than normal till mid July.

Upcoming shift from injection season to withdrawals.

Growing demand for natural gas for industrial use.

Since the final outcome of EIA’s monthly report on June 29th, 2018 on natural gas production, I find the Natural Gas Futures look ready for a bullish move from the current level. EIA’s report amid expectations for warm weather through mid-July will take its toll due to growing demand for natural gas. Let us have a look at some figures and facts expressed by EIA’s report.

U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals, Monthly

NERCs Summer Reliability AssessmentNERCs Summer Reliability Assessment

Working Natural Gas in underground storageWorking Natural Gas in underground storage Natural Gas - Total Supply And Demand Balance - Last 365 DaysNatural Gas - Total Supply And Demand Balance - Last 365 Days

Natural Gas Weekly Rig Count

Natural Gas - Weekly rig count

Monthly Dry Shale Gas Production

Monthly Dry Shale Gas Production

U.S. Natural Gas supply and consumption, average change from first half 2017 to first half 2018

U.S. Natual Gas supply and consumption, average change from first half 2017 to first half 2018

Since then, many other latest developments have taken place at international level, including a supportive action to strengthen US economy by the U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Saudi Arabia's King Salman had agreed to his request to increase oil production "maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels," an extraordinary amount not confirmed by the kingdom and which would push the OPEC leader to a level of production never tested before. In an early morning tweet, Trump said Saudi Arabia's expanded production would help offset a decline in supply from Iran, after the United States pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in May and moved to reimpose oil sanctions. Secondly, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau late on Friday to discuss trade and other economic issues, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said on Saturday.

U.S. Natural Gas Imports and Exports

U.S. Natural Gas Imports and Exports

On analysis of the above changing geopolitical equations, I expect the following trading zones for Natural Gas futures for the week of July 2nd, 2018.

Natural Gas Futures 4 Hr. Chart - Expected Trading Zones For The Week Of July 2nd, 2018

Natural Gas tends to take a bullish move against all odds. No doubt that the Natural Gas futures may take a steep move on either side first, but finally a move in the 4-Hr. Chart will provide a more clear view. A Gap-up opening above the level of $3.033 will confirm the strength of Natural Gas bulls. To understand the above charts in detail see my video 

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