In the coming days, European markets will continue to be battered as stock markets have been headed south globally and lower oil prices.
On top of the globally dominating trade wars, the US Federal Reserve’s announcing the end of the ‘accommodative’ monetary policy era triggered much higher yield on the US Treasuries propelling it to the 2011 highs. And surely with the US Treasury bonds doing as great as that, the higher-risk assets are attracting less interest across markets.
Traders are awaiting a new Fed rate hike to occur soon, as the US regulator said rates would be raised four times before 2019. Most US central bankers believe that the rate will be increased three times over 2019 and will reach 2.875% at average.
The EU’s markets will also be under pressure from the globally downbeat oil prices. Despite the expected sanctions-battered Iran’s oil supply cuts’ being a powerful medium-term driver, the oil market has a bunch of negative new to digest. Specifically, the US considers some exemptions to be offered to particular oil importers concerning Iran crude exports sanctions to be imposed in November this year. Sanctions may be eased for countries that have made it clear that they are set to reduce their oil imports from the country.
Meanwhile, European investors have never stopped being worried about the Brexit prospects like that if the UK exits the EU without reaching the deal and so with a zero transition period that will hurt the Irish economy and financial system dramatically. Moreover, many British companies would like to move their business to Ireland after the Brexit.
On the bright side, France celebrates the S&P’s affirming the country’s credit rating at “AA”, outlook stable. S&P believes that the France’s unemployment rate will go gradually down from 9.1% in 2018 to 8.6% in 2021, with inflation at 2% this year and lower further on to reach 1.6% over 2019-2020.
Ivan Marchena, Libertex Analyst