Update: Alternative Gold Valuation

Aug. 22, 2019 11:36 AM ETSPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), IAU, PHYS
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Contributor Since 2018

I like Warren Buffett's "Only invest in what you know." A bad invitation for a pathological data miner and statistics aficionado. I am investing my own money, for my own retirement. It couldn't be more serious.

In a previous post I introduced my theory for an alternative approach to calculate the fair value of gold.

The theory in summary:

Demand and supply agree on a spot price. Gold serves as store of value as well as a tradeable asset (ie. GLD). If we take into account the forces that influence the demand of gold, we can extrapolate the fair value. The Shiller CAPE is used as a measure to de-distort the gold demand. High demand for equities reduces demand for gold and vice versa.

Note: Due to different sizes of the equities and gold market, the transformation is "fit". However, it is a constant factor in the calculation.

Alternative Gold Fair Value Calculation as of July 2019Data source: Quandl.com

Current results - all data as of End of July 2019:

  • Shiller CAPE: 30
  • Shiller Median: 20
  • Gold Spot Price: $1430
  • Extrapolated Fair Value of Gold: $2625
  • Current Gold Fair Value Trendline: $2334

Conclusion:

The market still preferres equities over gold. This provides an attractive price for adding to a gold allocation in a portfolio.

This does not imply any price projections over the short term. But in the long run I  expect the gold price to keep up or catch up to the extrapolated fair value.

Note: I always hold a part of my portfolio in gold as physically backed funds and physical.

Disclosure: I am/we are long Physically backed Gold ETFs.

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