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Daily Report: 27 March 2019

|Includes: AUDS, DIA, EURS, iShares New Zealand Dollar ETF (NZDS), QQQ, SPY, TRYS, USDU

Equities

  • Ed Keon, says Q1 earnings will be better than anticipated. Lennar says there is a jump in new orders, which is a bullish sign for the housing market. Both news today are bullish for the stock market.

FX

  • NZD falls after central bank says next move in interest rates will likely be down. This was unexpected, but it feels like all talk as of now. 
  • Turkish central bank locks investors who are betting against Lira. This will force the currency to become strong till election get over. As a result, overnight Turkish swap hit 1200%. This move has very high chances of backfiring and after the elections get over, the Lira might just crash.

Macro

  • China Beige Book said the country recovered in Q1, but it also took on more debt.
  • Credit Suisse’ CIO says recession is coming, but will be slow and will take 2-3 years. CIO is hoping for a rally during the second half of this year.
  • After the 2008 recession, almost all central banks are now forwardly pro-active rather than being passively re-active. We saw this with Fed, ECB, and many other countries. Today the New Zealand Central bank joined the bandwagon. Where there is a concern, there is no recession. It sounds confusing, but all the central banks are doing now is postponing the recession. We see a more elongated response/business cycle every time a recession hits, and the recovery periods are longer than ever. This all lead to a very grim future with very slow periods of real progress.

Current Positions

  • Long EUR/USD
  • Long NVDA
  • Long AUD/USD

Note: This blog post is a collection of notes taken during the day. This is not a full-scale journalistic article, but, hopefully, is enough to give a prospective investor a decent idea of the current events. I might have missed out on major key events due to the amount of sub-par articles that clutter my feed. If you feel my news coverage is lacking, or have any suggestions for improvements, please feel free to comment. My own opinions and biases have also been included.