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Microsoft Azure Revenue Is About 2700 $M In Its Q1 FY 19

|Includes: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Summary

Many people are seeking for the revenue data of Microsoft Azure, but Microsoft did not post it on any SEC fillings.

We can estimate the revenue from Azure by historical SEC fillings.

This article shows how I estimate the revenue of Azure.

I found revenue from Microsoft Azure in 3 months ended September 30 2018 is about 2700 $M, and each season revenue from June 1 2016.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/27/49838475-1540614580827976.png

Let us have a look how I found this.

Step 1 Make Segments Clear

In this step, we found out that we cannot tell clearly which segment Visual Studio, System Center, and related CALs belongs to.

We can see Azure is part of server products and cloud services according to Microsoft's Q 1 FY 2019 quarterly report in which says "Server products and cloud services, including Microsoft SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related CALs , and Microsoft Azure" , and we know Windows server and Microsoft SQL Server belongs to Server Products by " Server products licensed on-premises revenue increased 10%,due to a higher mix of premium license for Windows Server and Microsoft SQL server." So far, we are still not sure whether Visual Studio, System Center and related CALs belong to Server products or not.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/26/49838475-1540608131050653.png

Step 2 Assuming server products and cloud services only consists of two segment: Azure and Server products, and making an optimistic estimate.

Firstly, we can get revenue classified by significant product and service offerings from SEC 10 Q reports as following:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/26/49838475-15406099494942653.png

Data source: Microsoft SEC 10 Q reports of 3 months ended September 30 2018, year ended June 30 2018, 3 month ended March 31 2018, 3 months ended September 30 2017.

Secondly, we know y/y growth of server products and Azure from quarterly reports,and we can calculate y/y growth of server products and cloud services, as following:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/26/49838475-15406117305236976.png

So we can build up an easily equation:

When Quarterly = Q 3 2017

We set

X = revenue from server products

Y = revenue from Azure

Then

X + Y = 5496 name as t1

X * (1+10%) + Y*(1+76%) = 7058 name as t2

X/(1+2%)+Y/(1+90%) = 4689 name as t3

According to t1 and t2, we can get Y = 1534, but according to t1 and t3, we can get Y = 1540, considering t2 is the latest data , we choose 1534 as the last result.

At last, by same method above, we can get all quarter results as following:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/26/49838475-15406126860696514.png

Step 3 About the segments problem mentioned in step 1

According the result we got from step 2, we know that revenue from FY 18 Microsoft Azure should about 7716 $M.

We checked this result with some market research company(sorry I cannot tell you which one but they have revenue data by brand by their own categories ) and this article: Microsoft rises on earnings beat, but Azure growth slows

We found that our result is smaller than market research company and Evercore analysts estimated.

In conclusion,Even Visual Studio, System center, and related CALs is not part of Server products, we still can presume that those 3 products contributed very small part. So we consider revenue from Microsoft Azure in 3 months ended September 30 2018 is 2700 $M.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.