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Pivotfarm Daily News Harvest June 10th 2010

  • Asian markets closed mainly up, except for China which fell after yesterdays large gains.
  • European markets are up across the board showing small gains.
  • UK base rate held at 0.5% for 15th month in a row.
  • The Euro continues to recover strength against other currencies, with EUR/USD trading above 1.2000.
  • Shares in BP continue to fall with the price now trading at a 13 year low. The company issued a statement saying they know no reason for the recent sudden decline after they opened down over 15%. BP -6.45%.
  • Overall commodities appear to be trading higher with precious metals falling in value. Oil +0.91%. Gold -0.22%.
  • China confirms that exports rose 48.5% in May compared with the same month last year.
  • The Beige Book released yesterday showed continued improvements in economic activity throughout the US.
  • Yesterday’s petroleum report showed that inventories continued to fall for the3rd week in a row.
  • US equity futures trade higher before the open at 0930ET. Dow Futures +0.86%.

International Trade

Previous                              $-40.4 B                                                                Consensus                          $-41.0 B

Consensus Range            $-42.0 B to $-37.5 B                                          Actual                                   $-40.3 B               

The international trade report shows the US’s trade gap. A negative figure shows that more money is leaving the country than is coming in. Today’s figure shows data for April. March’s data released last month showed a worsening of the trade gap from -$39.7B to -$40.4B. Today’s report shows that the trade gap has marginally improved over last month’s figure. The figure of $-40.3 B is better than expected, so should have bullish forces on the equity markets when they open. This better than expected figure also bodes well for the strength of the US Dollar, and should prove bullish.

Jobless Claims

Previous                              453 K                                                                     Consensus                          448 K

Consensus Range            440 K to 465 K                                                    Actual                                   456K

This week’s jobless claims figure came in worse than consensus and worse than previous. This may not be greatly surprising to some people after last weeks non-farm payroll figures came in well under consensus. This represents a worsening in the number of people employed and may mean less consumer spending. This should put bearish forces on the equity markets when they open at the bell.

Coming Up Today

1030ET – Natural Gas Report

The weekly report by the Energy Information Administration provides data on US natural gas stocks. A report showing a drop in natural gas stocks may signal increasing demand in the economy and see an increase in the price of the commodity.

1000ET – Treasury Budget

Previous                              $-82.7 B                                                                Consensus                          $-140.0 B

Consensus Range            $-158.0 B to $-140.0 B

The monthly report shows the federal government’s fiscal deficit or surplus. This gives an indicator of how government spending is compared with government revenues. The result for May, released today, is expected to show growth in the deficit. A growing deficit means that the countries finances are getting worse.



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