Positions indicated by Market-Makers’ Intelligences lists and closed out by either reaching a forecast sell-target price or a position-holding time limit have been as follows:
Number Due To % Price Change Days Held bp/day CAGR
662 100% All 27.7 174%
586 88% Targets, wins +14.4% 43.4 38.2
78 12% Time-outs - 16.3% 91 -9.5
The proportion of winning positions (88%) at 7 out of each 8 is significantly above the win-loss balance history longer-term of 6 out of each 8 (75%), but not unprecedented.
What should not be overlooked in the CAGR of 174% as calculated above is the average days held of winners at less than half of the holding time granted to the losers. In the same length time period there should be a reinvestment opportunity for another 586 positions. They might turn out to be divided as winners to losers either of 7 out of 8, 6 out of 8, or even 5 out of 8. But in any case would tend to add to the +174% CAGR for the 91-day period.
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