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EURUSD: Broader Momentum Points Lower, Risk Seen Towards The 1.2874 Level (The Week Ahead)

EURUSD: With a corrective recovery attempt failing and turning the pair down to close marginally higher at the end of the week, risk of a return to the 1.2945 level, its Dec 14’2011 low is likely in the new week. On a cut through that level, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.2874 level, its Jan 2011 low followed by the 1.2587 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3197 level followed by the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low to reduce its broader medium term downside pressure and bring further gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high and the 1.4342 level, its daily falling trendline come in as the next upside targets. All in all, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias.