Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Halftime Report, Monday November 16: Break Out

|Includes: DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), UUP, XLF

 Stocks are up big today on the back of weaker than expected Retail Sales numbers, lower than expected Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, and a decline in Business Inventories. Despite all the mediocre news, stocks are rallying across the board so far today. Ben Bernanke is speaking right now, so be careful (markets are beginning to pull back).

SPY is breaking out of a high base formation so far today on the daily chart. The TICK and TRIN are almost overly bullish, but showing strength nonetheless. The VIX, however, is only down about 1.5% today. Normally, the VIX should move 3x the inverse of the markets in order to confirm the move, but we are not seeing that so far today. All of the broader market indexes are participating in the rally today. The dollar (DXY, UUP) is down today, which is providing for support to the upside in equities. Also, it is interesting to note that bonds are increasing today (take a look at TLT). Bonds are normally a flight-to-safety type investment.


As for my personal trading account, I am setting up to go short again on the next down leg, so at the next reversal pattern I will add to short positions. I personally feel the need to re-evaluate my strategy. Expect a personal reflection post next week.

Thanks for being a part of! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

Happy Trading,