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Multikine Musings

|About: CEL-SCI Corporation (CVM)
Summary

IDMC News Imminent.

CEO asks CRO to "Expedite" The Trial.

Over $11.5M In-The-Money Warrants Still Not Converted.

Jim Cramer from Mad Money says CVM is a BUY!

Bullish Golden Cross on the Weekly Chart.

About CEL-SCI

CEL-SCI Corporation (CVM) is a small-cap (~$300 million), clinical-stage cancer bio-pharmaceutical company. Multikine, a cocktail combination of cytokines and chemokines, is a prospective neoadjuvant treatment and an investigational drug candidate in clinical development for newly diagnosed advanced primary head and neck cancer. It has also received orphan status.

The goal of treatment with Multikine is to boost the body's immune system prior to standard of care. The Phase III study is fully enrolled with 928 patients, and the last patient was treated in September 2016.

IDMC News Imminent 

Upcoming Meeting

The last IDMC meeting was March 2019.  At this meeting, the IDMC had approximately 90% of the unblinded data.  The said the following:

The IDMC recommendation is to continue the trial until the appropriate number of events have occurred."

We believe the IDMC has recently met again.  Both their CRO, Ergomed, and Fosco's spreadsheets point to the fact that the IDMC should now have about 96% of the data.

It is our expectation that the IDMC will AGAIN make the same recommendation to continue the trial until the appropriate number of events have occurred.

When will the appropriate number of events occur?  We have noted that we expect the 298th event to occur between December 2019 and January 2020.

Remember, this is an Event-Driven study, not a Time-Driven study.  Therefore, we don't anticipate the trial to end early.

Futility Recommendation

The Bears say the "study has already failed" and the only reason the trial is allowed to continue is because no additional patients are being dosed.  This is rich!  Here is a doozy:

Short

This is categorically not true.  

However, why hasn't the IDMC recommended to shut the trial down for "futility".  Before we answer that, let's go over what "futility" means.

The term "futility" is used to refer to the inability of a clinical trial to achieve its objectives. In particular, stopping a clinical trial when the interim results suggest that it is unlikely to achieve statistical significance can save resources that could be used on more promising research.

The Phase III trial endpoints are clear: The Gold-Standard of Overall Survival.

The Multikine trial nears its ninth year.  The IDMC has met multiple times and as recently as August 2018 and March 2019. At each of these meetings, the IDMC could have made the recommendation to end the trial early for futility...but they haven't.

Don't think for a second that the IDMC doesn't shut trials down for futility. They do it often.  Just look at a few this year:

But why won't any of the Bears answer this fundamental question: "Why hasn't the IDMC shut the trial down early due to futility?"  We know why...it doesn't fit their narrative.

Clues From Cash

Expedite The Patient Follow-Up

CEL-SCI is a small biotech that is burning through nearly $1.4M cash a month.  Like many similar biotechs, cash is an issue and funds are limited.

The Bears have historically stated that CEL-SCI is a "scam" and that management has a vested interest in prolonging the study. "Keep the scam going", they say!  Look at this classic tweet:

scam With that said, why did the CEO, Geert Kersten, request the CRO to expedite the patient followups to reach a "faster" conclusion to the trial?  He made those comments at the recent Rodman and Renshaw conference on 9/10/19. Why add to the already high cash burn rate?  WHY SPEND MORE MONEY TO HAVE THE STUDY END SOONER?  Why aren't they trying to keep the "scam" going?

Why won't the Bears answer this question? We know why...it doesn't fit their narrative.

$11.5M Warrants In The Money Still Not Converted

There is no secret that CEL-SCI has had a dubious past when it came to it's fund raising efforts.  Wash. Rinse. Repeat. 

As a result of these cash raises, CEL-SCI provided potentially lucrative warrants.  With a company of CEL-SCI's past, many warrant holders wondered if the stock price would ever meet the warrant strike prices. Over the years, there have been countless lost opportunities because warrants expired worthless.  

As many Bears state, Geert's main goal is to "pump" the share price so the warrant holders can FINALLY convert their warrants and "make bank". 

Here is a tweet by a blogger:

F'Stain

Interesting... until you review the latest 10-Q for the quarter ended 6/30/19.  What stuck out to me was the large In-The-Money warrants that STILL HAVEN'T BEEN CONVERTED. As of 6/30/19, nearly $11.5M of warrants STILL HAVEN'T BEEN CONVERTED.

Wwrt

This makes no sense.  With all the "red flags", with all the ups and downs, with all the "pump and dumps", this was FINALLY the warrant holders opportunity to cash out and "make bank".  The share price has hit multiple new 52-Week highs this year. Now, after all these years, these warrants are worth a lot of money.  How much? At a $8.00 share price, these warrant holders would stand to GAIN over $24M.  Yes, gain over $24M!

Why haven't they converted? The stock could tank at a moments notice on bad IDMC news.  Why are they leaving over $24M at risk and on the table?  Surely, they haven't forgotten about the "red flags" and all the "pump and dumps".  Again, why are they leaving $24M on the table?

Why won't the Bears answer this question? We know why...it doesn't fit their narrative.

Before we move on, I will answer why these warrant holders haven't converted: They believe.  They believe Multikine will work. 

CEL-SCI Gets Buy Recommendation from Jim Cramer

On 9/23/2019, "Dave The Camel" (retired CEO) called into CNBC's Mad Money, hosted by Jim Cramer. Jim gave CEL-SCI a BUY rating (see image below) and stated:

It’s just a good spec."

JCBUY

The internet went in a tizzy. A blogger was so excited and Tweeted out the following:

AF Tweet But the Bears, scoffed and laughed. Ya know what, we will take it! More awareness to the World's Largest Head and Neck Cancer trial, the better.

Bullish Golden Cross Imminent

We are seeing a Golden Cross form on the weekly chart. It is a very bullish signal.  

  • The golden cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major rally.
  • The golden cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses above its long-term moving average.

In addition, the MACD is on an upswing.  A bullish crossover occurs when the MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line 

With 5 green weeks in a row, we expect this week to be green as well!

Chart

Make sure you visit KillCVMShorts.com every day!

Disclosure: I am/we are long CVM.