Intel WW Core Line Channel Inventory Report For The Week Ending September 12, 2021

Summary

• Intel Core desktop and mobile.
• Atom all inclusive.
• Intel 10 nm and TSMC 7/5nm time to market observations.
• Intel in relation AMD volume notations.

Intel WW channel report week of September 5 through 12.

Note; best viewed on a desktop or comparable PC mobile device.

Summary - channel inventory gain or clear by Core product category note there are two results.

The first result is channel movement from the second week of July through September 12^th. Second result is channel movement over the prior two weeks.

INTEL WW CHANNEL INVENTORY	%▲over 2 months	%▲over 2 weeks	% channel inventory
			9.12.21
Core Desktop	1.46	135.16	64.35%
Core Mobile	1.31	0.90	30.30%
All Atom	5.44	1.62	5.35%
			100.00%
Core Desktop	7.10.21	8.29.21
	to 8.29.21	to 9.12.21
Rocket Lake	35.19	-2.34	3.13%
Xeon Cascade Lake R HEDT	6.02	-9.22	0.38%
Comet Lake	-7.73	0.35	16.42%
Xeon Cascade Lake HEDT	4.78	-18.26	0.59%
Coffee Lake Refresh Xeon E	-1.41	11.17	1.17%
Coffee Lake Refresh	-14.64	-0.62	9.63%
Coffee Lake Xeon E	6.32	0.99	0.61%
Coffee Lake	-4.13	-5.95	6.03%
Kaby Lake E3 1200 v6	-35.57	-2.26	0.65%
Kaby Lake	1.89	-5.38	7.34%
Xeon Skylake HEDT	22.41	-4.23	0.41%
Skylake E3 1200 v5	7.20	-12.80	1.64%
Sky Lake	14.59	5.57	25.50%
Broadwell Xeon Extremes	4.76	-3.98	0.51%
Broadwell E3 1200 v4	40.00	-7.14	0.04%
Broadwell	15.63	0.00	0.11%
Haswell EE	17.11	-3.37	0.52%
Haswell Refresh	1.37	0.20	10.49%
Haswell E3 1200 v3	5.67	-5.00	3.14%
Haswell	-0.34	-5.58	11.69%
% Gain or Clear	on unit volume	flat	100.00%
Core Mobile	7.10.21	8.29.21	% Inventory
	to 8.29.21	to 9.12.21	9.12.21
Tiger Lake H octa / hexa	391.43	133.14	0.90%
Tiger Lake H quad	41.27	10.11	0.22%
Tiger Lake U quad	-9.14	20.17	4.72%
Ice Lake U hexa / quad	12.01	0.34	3.95%
Lakefield penta	9.09	-13.89	0.07%
Comet H octa / hexa	-26.94	11.22	4.05%
Comet U hexa / quad / dual	-13.36	-1.30	4.44%
Comet Y quad / dual	-18.18	22.22	0.05%
Coffee Lake Refresh Xeon M octa	-5.26	16.67	0.05%
Coffee Lake Refresh H octa / hexa / quad	-22.43	6.35	2.18%
Whiskey Lake quad	-1.77	-7.34	3.12%
Amber Lake quad / dual	4.17	-12.00	0.20%
Coffee Lake Xeon M hexa	2.22	8.70	0.11%
Coffee Lake H hexa / quad	1.71	17.17	2.34%
Coffee Lake U quad / dual	-10.68	1.49	2.29%
Kaby Lake G quad	1.49	-5.88	0.14%
Kaby Lake Refresh quad	-8.10	-7.63	3.32%
Kaby Lake Y quad / dual	44.16	-2.10	0.73%
Kaby Lake HD620 U dual	6.56	5.65	9.82%
Kaby Lake Iris 640 U dual	-1.39	-18.64	0.65%
Kaby Kake Iris 650 U dual	3.77	-27.27	0.18%
Kaby Lake Pentium U dual	12.86	6.33	0.19%
Kaby Lake Celeron U dual	2.26	7.35	0.33%
Kaby Lake E3 15xxM V6 quad	0.00	0.00	0.06%
Kaby Lake H quad	0.35	-6.48	2.98%
Sky Lake E3 15xxM v5 quad	40.91	2.69	0.43%
Sky Lake H quad	74.38	-15.82	3.04%
Skylake U dual	2.63	-2.26	14.92%
Skylake Y dual	3.07	3.30	2.18%
Broadwell H quad	4.35	26.04	0.27%
Broadwell U dual	7.20	-1.94	13.48%
Haswell H/M.U/Y quad / dual	2.29	-3.27	18.59%
% Gain or Clear	on unit volume	+ 1.59%	100.00%
Atom	7.10.21	8.29.21	% Inventory
	to 8.29.21	to 9.12.21	9.12.21
Jasper Lake	84.09	25.93	1.59%
Gemini Lake	4.85	9.25	20.67%
Apollo Lake	1.19	2.24	13.56%
Cheery Trail Braswell	5.97	-2.65	27.55%
Cherry Trail X	2.98	-2.11	5.81%
Bay Trail	5.87	0.31	30.81%
% Gain or Clear	on unit volume	+ 7.1%	100.00%

Detail Core Tiger Lake back through Core Skylake –

Beginning with Rocket Lake Desktop, channel available down < 2.33% in the prior two weeks on a volume build gaining at 13% per week.

Economically on production assessment across 28 weeks of supply, the prior 15 weeks of Rocket are surplus priced by Intel at cost. At four weeks of supply marginal revenue equals marginal cost and by the fifth week of supply marginal revenue drops to zero.

All SKUs including W in-part are available in the channel here’s run to date volume by grade SKU;

XW 13xx_ = 0.002%

11900K 8C = 20.51%

900KF = 3.35%

900 = 2.09%

900F = 2.26%

900T = 0.30%

11700K 8C = 13.88%

700KF = 6.81%

700 = 5.55%

700F = 10.9%

11600K 6C = 9.06%

600KF = 2.03%

600 = 0.74%

600T = 0.03%

500 = 1.92%

500T = 0.01%

400 = 14.28%

400F = 5.92%

400T = 0.07%

Sales trend by category at volume peak 5 weeks back and all SKUs are selling down except Xeon W 13xx_ = flat;

i9 < 5.2%

i7 < 6.9%

i5 < 3.3% can be compared with V5X sales trend in week’s AMD report.

Tiger Lake Desktop B (NUC) is not yet available in the channel.

Tiger Lake Mobile H octa/hexa + 131% in the prior two weeks on a 36% per week volume build trend.

Difficult to determine the sales trend on volume build and here’s by grade SKU;

XW 11xxxM = 1.2%

11980HK 8C = 5.05%

950H = 3.60%

900H = 4.10%

11850 H 8C = 4.42%

800H = 70.91%

11500H 6C = 1.45%

400H = 8.20%

260H = 1.07%

Tiger Lake Mobile H quads + 10% prior two weeks are 66.46 % of octa / hexa volume. TLH quad i7 SKUs = 81.19% and i5 SKUs = 18.8% run to date, i7 370H = 65.14% of the short run.

All Tiger Lake H 8C in week is 18% more than all C5/R4 H/HS 8C in week.

All Tiger Lake H 6C in week is 39% of all C5/R4 H/HS 6C in week.

Tiger Lake Mobile UP3 15w and UP4 7w + 120.17% prior two weeks where a meager 3.4% are UP4 7w and here’s by full run volume;

i7 = 45.32%

i5 = 41.22%

i3 4/2C = 9.26%

P&C 2C = 0.004%

Top grade SKUs;

1135G7 = 35.87%

1165G7 = 33.05%

1185G7 = 14.06%

1154G4 = 8.9%

1145G7 = 6.89% and all other available are tailings.

Sales trend from TLH quad first peak on 5.22.21 and now at a second similar available volume peak here’s in-week;

i7 < 14.6%

i5 < 11.4%

i3 + 72%

Apple Mac M1 + 3% prior 2 weeks is 11% of all Tiger Lake quad and on a full run basis equals 11.70% of TLH quad and here’s volume over the full run;

Mac Mini M1 = 29.95%

Mac Book Pro = 28.22%

Mac Air = 41.83%

and in-week;

Mac Mini M1 = 18.53%

Mac Book Pro = 37.5%

Mac Air = 43.96%

On dice yield and time to market, Apple M1 at 5 nm over 42 weeks of supply gained channel volume at a rate of 11.8% per week.

Apple TSMC M1 can be compared against AMD TSMC Cezanne mobile 7 nm supply growth over 30 weeks is 25% per week.

Intel Tiger Lake H 10 nm quads over 49 weeks gained at a rate of 32% per week and for H octa / hexa 10 nm over 18 weeks the rate is 36%.

Data can be relied to consider good dice and final package time to market.

Lakefield 5C < 14% on in-week volume equals all of Ryzen 4300U that is 3.2% of the Renoir 4X mobile in week total.

Moving to Ice Lake U mobile = flat prior two weeks and full run volume;

1066G7 6C = 26.22%

1035G7 4C = 4.16%

1035G4 4C = 10.16%

1035G1 4C = 32.11%

1005G1 2C = 17.73%

and in-week which shows the full run sales trend;

1066G7 6C = 33.54%

1035G7 4C = 5%

1035G4 4C = 4%

1035G1 4C = 37.23%

1005G1 2C = 20%

Pursuant channel clearing Ice volume is down 14% from prior 6.5.21 volume high which is down 14.33% from the full run peak on 2.13.21.

Here’s Ice 10 nm SUPPLY volume OVER 106 weeks = 39.78% per week.

Ice Lake U build volume in the first 30 weeks = 16.68% which Tiger Lake doubles. Suggests Intel has resolved any small dice 10 nm yield concern.

My July 10, 2021 Ice / Tiger U 4C production economic assessment determines a 28% cost improvement from Ice to Tiger quad see slide 56;

Intel Full CPU Product Line Channel Inventory Summary; April 10, 2021 (NASDAQ:AMD)

Moving to Comet Lake U mobile < 1.3% in prior two weeks where Comet U full run volume is 35.34% more than Ice U and 286.29% more than Tiger U.

Here’s Comet U full run volume by grade SKU;

10810U 6C = 1.38%

10710U 6C = 5.75%

106100 4C = 7.30%

105100 4C = 25.93%

10310U 4C = 7.89%

10210U 4C = 42.97%

10110U 2C = 8.78%

and in-week which shows the full run sales trend;

10810U 6C = 1.26%

10710U 6C = 4.05%

106100 4C = 9.86%

105100 4C = 24.62%

10310U 4C = 12.74%

10210U 4C = 31.24%

10110U 2C = 15.77%

Pursuant channel clearing Comet U volume is down 38% from the prior 6.5.21 volume high which is down 49.3% from full run peak on 12.5.20.

Comet Y = flat and full run just 0.34% of Comet U.

Moving to Comet H octa / hexa + 11.2% prior two weeks and down from the prior 3.27.21 volume high < 32% is also peak volume and by full run SKU grade;

XW 10xxxM = 2.24%

10980HK 8C = 4.35%

885H = 5.11%

880H = 0.10%

875H = 12.87%

870H = 3.02%

10850H 6C = 5.93%

750H = 54.22%

500H = 0.15%

400H = 2.91%

300H = 9.11%

and in-week which shows the full run sales trend;

XW 10xxxM = 2.99%

10980HK 8C = 4.38%

885H = 4.10%

880H = 0.11%

875H = 9.98%

870H = 11.59%

10850H 6C = 4.43%

750H = 56.15%

500H = 1.33%

400H = 2.05%

300H = 14.47%

and statistically since volume high of 6.26.21 to see comparative difference NOW and again average sales trend;

XW 10xxxM + 13.64%

10980HK 8C + 7.95%

885H < 24%

880H = flat

875H < 19%

870H + 48.67%

10850H 6C < 15%

750H < 11.6%

500H + 83.33%

400H < 14.9%

300H < 18.6%

All Comet Lake H 8C in week is 24% more than all C5/R4 H/HS 8C in week.

All Comet Lake H 6C in week is 1605% or 17x more than all C5/R4 H/HS 6C in week.

Moving to Comet Lake desktop + 3.09% prior two weeks down from prior 7.17.21 volume high < 8.25% which is down < 42% from the full run peak on 2.13.21 and by full run core grade;

XW 1290xx_ = 0.61%

i9 10C = 33.27%

i7 8C = 31.18%

i5 6C = 25.96%

i3 4C = 6.57%

Pentium = 0.95%

Celeron = 1.47%

and in-week;

XW 1290xx_ = 0.61%

i9 10C = 30.24%

i7 8C = 26.78%

i5 6C = 25.55%

i3 4C = 10.29%

Pentium = 1.70%

Celeron = 2.32%

Top 7 SKUs full run and in-week;

10900K 10C = 19.78% and 16.22%

10700K 8C = 14.99% and 13.60%

10700 8C = 12.99% and 7.93%

10400 6C = 9.00% and 9.76%

10850K 10C = 8.84% and 9.48%

10500 6C = 6.17% and 4.96%

10600K 6C = 4.99% and 4.59% all other SKUs are slack fall out.

Essentially Comet Lake desktop on yield is all K and everything else fall out.

All Comet 10C in week = 39% more than RV5X and RM3X 12C available combined.

All Comet 8C in week = 77% of RV5X and RM3X 8C available combined.

All Comet 6C in week = 86% of RV5X and RM3X 6C available combined.

Comet Lake desktop on average ‘statistical’ sales trend since prior 7.17.21 volume high;

i9 < 4.9%

i7 < 0.04%

i5 < 20%

i3 < 11.8%

Pentium + 4.8%

Celeron = flat

XCLr i9 Extremes < 9.3% prior two weeks and in-week;

10980XE 18C = 23.43%

10940X 14C = 19.5%

10920X 12C = 24.21%

10900X 10C = 32.18%

All XCLr HEDT full run volume is 308% more than XW 12xx_ and 7.5% of Core i9 10C and 2.49% of all Comet Lake full run where in-week stands at 2.3% of Comet desktop.

All Intel “in-week” Core unit volume in relation AMD “in-week” competitive Ryzen and Thread-ripper volume for Intel products thus far detailed;

Intel = 59.31%

AMD = 40.69%

Microsoft Surface Pro X SQ2 + 2.25% over prior two weeks.

Microsoft Surface Pro X SQ1 + 87.5%

and sales trend on average since 7.17.21 prior volume high;

Microsoft Surface Pro X SQ2 < 53%

Microsoft Surface Pro X SQ1 < 12%

Moving to Coffee Lake Refresh desktop < 2.01% prior two weeks is down from 7.17.21 volume high < 14.25% which is down < 80% from the full run peak on 10.18.20 and by full run core grade;

i9 8C = 43.99%

i7 8C = 15.13%

i5 6C = 28.05%

i3 4C = 6.72%

Pentium = 2.77%

Celeron = 3.34%

and in-week:

i9 8C = 30.71%

i7 8C = 16.29%

i5 6C = 35.89%

i3 4C = 6.72%

Pentium = 2.77%

Celeron = 4.68%

Top six grade SKUs in week;

9900K 8C/16t = 23.31%

9400 6C/6t = 13.67%

9700K 8C/8t = 11.00%

9500F 6C/6t = 8.77%

9900KF 8C/16t = 6.65%

9100 4C/4t = 6.49%

All 9900K_ 8C = 62% more than RV5X 5800_ 8C and 71.85% of RM3X 38/3700_ 8C. This analyst considers CLR 9^th generation single thread SKUs non competitive and suspect channel inventory financial write off.

XCL i9 Extremes < 20% prior two weeks and in-week;

9980XE 18C = 6%

9960X 16C = 10.65%

9990XE 14C = 0.005%

9940X 14C = 22.84%

9920X 12C = 8.62%

9900X 10C = 10.65%

9820X 10C = 20.81%

9800X 8C = 19.79%

All XCL HEDT full run volume is 13.36% of Coffee Lake Refresh full run and in-week stands at 6.14% of Coffee Lake Refresh available.

Moving to Coffee Lake Refresh Mobile H + 6.3% prior two weeks is down < 27% from prior 6.5.21 volume high that is down < 77% from 1.11.20 full run peak and by full run grade SKU;

Xeon 22xxM 8C = 1.58%

9980HK 8C = 3.97%

9980H 8C = 0.11%

9880H 8C = 11.20%

9850H 6C = 6.85%

9750H 6C = 62.90%

9400H 6C = 1.72%

9300H 6C = 11.67%

and in-week;

Xeon 22xxM 8C = 2.16%

9980HK 8C = 10.71%

9980H 8C = 0.001%

9880H 8C = 9.16%

9850H 6C = 4.11%

9750H 6C = 59.32%

9400H 6C = 3.29%

9300H 6C = 13.28%

All Coffee Lake Refresh H 8C in week is 62% of all C5/R4 H/HS 8C in week.

All Coffee Lake Refresh H 6C in week is 836% more than all C5/R4 H/HS 6C in week.

All Intel “in-week” Core unit volume in relation AMD “in-week” competitive Ryzen and Thread-ripper volume for Intel products thus far detailed;

Intel = 65.45%

AMD = 34.55%

Moving to Coffee Lake Desktop < 6% prior two weeks and in week;

i7 < 9.1%

i5 < 7%

i3 + 2%

on volume in-week;

i7 = 34.56%

i5 = 46.11%

i3 = 19.32%

All Coffee Lake desktop volume is currently 62.67% of Coffee Lake Refresh, 36.76% of Comet Lake and 93% more than Rocket Lake.

All 8700 6C = 40.57% of RM3X 6C

All 87/8086K = 13.07% of RM3X 6C

Moving to Coffee Lake Mobile H + 17% prior two weeks and in-week:

Xeon 21xxM 6C = 6.9%

i9 6C = 7.27%

i7 6C = 58.81%

i5 4C = 27.01%

All Coffee Lake H 6C in week is 40% of all C5/R4 H/HS 6C in week.

All Coffee Lake H 4C in week is 639% more than all R4 H/HS 4C in week.

Moving too Coffee Lake Mobile U + 2% in the prior two weeks.

Moving to Whiskey Lake Mobile U quad < 7.7% prior two weeks and in-week volume by core grade;

8565U = 26.99%

8265U = 29.73%

8145U = 35.70%

Pentium = 2%

Celeron = 5.5%

Whiskey Lake U 15W total volume in-week is 89% of Comet U i7/i5 15W and 40x more than Renoir 4300U quad 15W.

Kaby Lake G < 5.9%

Kaby Lake Refresh Mobile U < 2%

XSL HEDT < 4.3% is 5.1% of all Kaby Lake desktop.

Kaby Lake desktop including E3 v6 < 4.2% on total volume that is 32% more than Coffee Lake, 17% less than Coffee Lake Refresh and 49% of Comet.

i7X octa/hexa in week = 2.3% < 4.7% prior two weeks.

E3 12xx v6 quad = 8.1% < 2.3%

i7 quad = 23.65% < 0.04%

i5 quad = 47.79% < 8.4%

i3 quad = 10.30% < 2.9%

Pentium dual =3.45% < 10%

Celeron dual = 4.32% and flat

Kaby Lake Mobile H including XM < 7.1%

Kaby Lake Mobile Y < 2.2%

Kaby Lake Mobile U HD 620 + 5.6%

Kaby Lake Mobile U IRIS 640 < 19%

Kaby Lake Mobile IRIS 650 i5 7287U sells out; category < 27% at 27% of 640 and 6.5% of HD 620

Kaby Lake Pentium & Celeron U + 6.9%

Sky Lake Desktop < 1.3%

E3 12xx v5 = 6.4% < 13% primarily 1220 1U servers and a handful of workstations.

i7 = 35.22% < 3%

i5 = 43% and flat

i3 = 9.3% < 2.7%

Pentium = 3.4% < 4.9%

Celeron = 2.5% + 3%

Skylake desktop volume in-week is 45% more than Comet Lake desktop.

Moving to Skylake Mobile < 4% prior two weeks

Skylake Mobile H including XM < 14.9%

Skylake Mobile Y + 3.2%

Skylake Mobile U < 2.3%

All Intel “in-week” Core unit volume in relation AMD “in-week” competitive Ryzen and Thread-ripper volume for Intel products thus far detailed;

Intel = 84.31%

AMD = 15.69%

AMD WW channel inventory report for same period is posted here look down the comment string;

AMD Stock: Major Change In Sentiment (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

Xeon will be added shortly. GPU Today will be submitted as a stand alone report soon. AMD and Intel full line by grade SKU channel inventory will be completed for report into the fall sales season.

Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing