New Study Suggests 21-Day Ebola Quarantine Is Dangerously Short
Hospital workers and public health officials in the U.S. have come under fire for a series of missteps in their response to the Ebola crisis, from initially misdiagnosing Thomas Eric Duncan to allowing a nurse who cared for him at a Dallas hospital to fly on a commercial airliner shortly before she too was diagnosed with the deadly illness.
Now an engineering professor with expertise in assessing the risks posed by pathogens claims he's identified another big problem with authorities' response to the crisis.
In a paper published Oct. 14 in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks, Drexel University's Dr. Charles N. Haas argues that there's not enough evidence to support the recommended 21-day quarantine period for people suspected of harboring the virus.
"Twenty-one days has been regarded as the appropriate quarantine period for holding individuals potentially exposed to the Ebola virus to reduce the risk of contagion, but there does not appear to be a systemic discussion for the basis of this period," Hass said in a written statement.
Hass argues in the paper that outbreaks of Ebola in Zaire (1976) and Uganda (2000), as well as data from the first nine months of the current outbreak, suggest that there could be up to a 12-percent chance that someone could begin showing symptoms of Ebola after 21 days, according to the statement.
As Haas put it in an email to The Huffington Post, "the risk is certainly not zero of anyone beyond 21 days converting to symptomatic."
And as reported by the Washington Post, a paper published recently in the New England Journal of Medicine indicates that Ebola incubation times can be longer than that. According to the paper, "approximately 95%" of patients studied began to show symptoms within 21 days of exposure.
If 21 days is too short, what's the right length for an Ebola quarantine? Haas doesn't say.
"This is really a policy decision that needs to be made balancing the various costs, and other considerations such as personal liberty, that are involved," he told HuffPost Science. "There needs to be a formal deliberative process involving quantitative modelers along with economists and those familiar with regulatory and legal considerations."
An email seeking comment from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention went unanswered.
THIS IS A UNIQUE BLOG. WE ARE DIFFERENT !!
I will be listing those that participate their blogs to expand the horizon for us. We will have the blogs already running. But we now will have a few more..
What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few years !!
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MLP SPECIAL EDITION...(NYSE:NEW)
EATING HEALTHY ? SPECIAL EDITION... (NEW)
WILL WE HAVE A CURRENCY CRISES SOON? (NEW)
EBOLA , CAN IT BE A BLACK SWAN EVENT ?? (NEW)
IS O'CARE STARTING TO UNRAVEL ?? (NEW)
HERE IS THE LINK TO READING MATERIAL !!seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-material
HERE IS A LINK TO THE TRADING CHAPTER !!
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE CONSPIRACY CHAPTER #2!
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Two part blog on Healthcare: First installment,
The Healthcare Fallacy. I will take a critical and challenging look at the system we refer to as "Healthcare. "Here is a sentence from it:
The US "healthcare" system does nothing to prevent disease or create personal health. The primary emphasis is on treating symptoms without understanding what caused the symptoms in the first place.
Join me in questioning the established order. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/776251-john-wilson/2380302-the-healthcare-fallacy?source=kizur_seekingalpha
My first Blog is meant to be a Forum as well as a guide discussing a method of using Market Makers hedging activities to ascertain the opinions of the people who have the most up-to-date information, and the deepest pockets; and need to use it to protect their 7 figure salaries. With the information gleaned, the active investor learns a new way of investing that has proven to consistently beat the S&P, as well as "Buy and Hold" investing. By sticking to strict, precise, disciplined Buy and Sell targets, the investor builds a Portfolio of stocks that are held either until they reach their "Sell Targets" or 63 Market Days, whichever comes first.. This Blog and Forum is a demonstration of some of the available Tools for the active investor, and for discussions regarding the use of such tools.
"Analysis of my experiences using the data, tools and ideas presented by Peter F. Way; analyzing the possible advantages of selecting stocks favored by Market Makers on multiple occasions as opposed to stocks being favored by such Market Makers for a very limited period of time. A 3 month long study of a list
of stocks selected for favorable probabilities of gain. The list was selected by blockdesk.com on 6/27/14 and the only criteria was favorable odds of gain on that date after the close of trading. Amount of potential gain or risk was not considered. A secondary analysis is of the potential of additional gains by adding to positions that have fallen in price; but are still favored by the Market Makers. Such "Dips" of 5% or greater, while still maintaining favorable odds would meet the criteria for adding to such a position. "