Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Outlook For Year End

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

The AAII investor sentiment survey has turned decidedly positive. For contrarians, this is the most negative force it has been since December 28 when the market stayed virtually unchanged for 2 months. Thus, we likely are near the peak of the market for the year. This also coincides well with my year-end prediction for the market of a 3% gain. On the other hand, the four year cycle has turned positive. This four year cycle is caused by the Presidential election. The market's performance during the first two years of any President's administration usually underperforms that of second two years' performance