1. Genotype 1: 75%
a. Out of 28.4% Decided
Exp Scripts 6.6%
CVS Health 8.5%
GILD takes 21.8% vs ABBV 6.6%
b. Race is not over as there is still 46.6% Undecided up for grabs. MRK to join the party in 2016!
2. Genotype 2-6: 25%
No competition yet, but competition is coming from ABBV and MRK!
Assume ( that's a BIG "if"! ) that GILD maintains its lead of 3:1 in the remaining 46.6% that's still up for grabs:
ABBV market share will be 1/4* .75 = .19 or near 20%
4. Complete analysis should include international market.
Disclosure: The author is long GILD, FB.
Additional disclosure: and may initiate a new position in GILD or ABBV after 72 hours.