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Global Technical Review - 13 Mar 2010

Global Technical Review - 13 Mar 2010

This is a chart based analysis of the state of most major global stock markets using the free version of Incredible Charts (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/) done on Sun 12 Mar 2010 Australian (Sydney) time.
This review is based on the closing index price/value and the 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages (sma).
This analysis is based on the local currencies of each market. It therefore ignores the recent realignment of currencies (Euro and GBP in particular).

Overall Summary
Markets generally seem to be continuing up after the Greek debt concerns and the pause after the grossly overbought (index compared to 200 sma) condition of mid November.

Most markets (China, Hong Kong, Spain, Ireland, Austria and Italy excepted) are trending up within a gentler uptrend channel than the initial recovery phase channel. A number of markets (US S&P500, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, Indonesia, Malaysia) are in the top quarter of that channel but most are less than half way up from my judgement of the bottom line of the channel.

Buy/Hold
Technically in buy/hold mode (index price > 50 > 100 > 200 sma AND 50 sma rising) in the relevant local currency includes:
1. Sweden (and broke above the top of the rising channel on Friday)
2. Argentina (but note almost 100% recovery since bottom)
3. Brazil (but note almost 90% recovery since bottom)
4. Canada
5. Mexico (but note almost 90% recovery since bottom)
6. USA (and gap of 50 above 100 sma has widened)
7. Indonesia (but note almost 80% recovery since bottom)
8. Malaysia (50 now clearly above 100 sma but price respected top of rising channel during week)
9. Singapore (price risen over last week but 50 and 100 still close - 50 has turned up and is above 100)
10. South Korea (price well up over the last week and 50 now above 100 but price broke below 200 once on 8 Feb)
11. Belgium (while 50 did go below 100 for a few weeks price has held for 1 week above the top of the pennant that started 20 October)
12. Denmark (but price is at the top of a trend channel intact since 28 Aug 09 - but could be breakout time)
13. Netherlands
14. Norway (but 50 barely at/above 100 sma)
15. Switzerland
16. Turkey (but note almost 90% recovery since bottom)
17. United Kingdom (but perhaps the dramatic general fall in the currency has helped the stock market)

Technical buy now but complex chart recently causing uncertainty:
1. Japan (strong rise on week and within a broad uptrend channel but was whipsawing the 50, 100 and 200 smas in last month and a half. Very complex chart recently) (Japan's strong currency but large debt to GDP ratio also help to confuse matters)

Probably heading to technical buy in the near term, but some recent warning signals:
1. Ireland (Price > 200 > 50 > 100 and price below 200 15 days in last month or so but price trending up over the last 9 days and has broken above a 5 month downtrend)
2. Australia All Ords (price > 100 > 50 > 200 sma but price trending up since 10 Feb and 50 sma turning up and 50 barely below 100 now)
3. India (price > 100 > 50 > 200 but price trending up since 8 Feb and 50 sma continues pointing up)
4. New Zealand (price > 100 > 50 > 200 but price trending up since 16 Feb and 50 sma has turned up and is barely below 100)
5. Taiwan (price > 100 > 50 > 200, and price has been below 200 in last month but price trending up since 9 Feb)
6. Austria (100 > price > 50 > 200 and price has closed once below 200 in last month but price trending up over the last week and 50 turning up, but 100 still trending down - in a pennant since 20 Oct 2009)
7. France (Price > 100 > 50 > 200 and price has been below 200 in last month but price trending up over the last week and 50 has turned up and is almost back above 100)
8. Germany (Price > 100 = 50 > 200 but price trending up over the last week and 50 now at 100)


More Uncertain:
1. China SSEC (100 > 50 > 200 > price - price down over last week - been in a pennant since 4 August 09)
2. Hong Kong (100 > price >50 > 200, but price was below 200 within last month - been in a pennant since 18 November)
3. Spain (100 > 200 > price > 50 but while price trending up over the last week 50 and 100 are still pointing down - downward re-rating after Greek debt concerns could be over)
4. Italy (FTSEMIB using Yahoo Finance) (Price = 100 > 50 > 200 and price up over the week but closed below 200 consistently for about 20 days in last month and a half. 50 and 100 still pointing down - rerating down after Greek debt concerns could be over)


Disclosure: Long bonds (hedged to AUD), Australian share fund, Emerging Markets fund, Resources fund, Global equities fund (unhedged), Australian property


Disclosure: Long bonds (hedged to AUD), Australian share fund, Emerging Markets fund, Resources fund, Global equities fund (unhedged), Australian property