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Systematic Trading Plan: Current 50 Day Moving Average Signals for March 3, 2010

|Includes: BFK, BKF, DBC, DIA, DTN, EEM, EEP, EFA, EPP, EWA, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EZA, FXI, GLD, HHH, IJH, IJR, ILF, INP, IVW, IWM, IYF, IYR, IYT, JNK, MDY, OIH, PKOL, PPH, QQQ, RSP, RSX, RWX, SLV, SLX, SMH, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), USO, UUP, XHB, XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLV, XLY, XME
Has the Trend changed? Just a week or so ago, almost every Index was below its 50 Day Moving Average. Today, we see a continuation of more indexes moving back above their 50 Day Moving Average.
Many technicians say they need to see a break above 1120 in the S&P 500. I feel the trend has changed using not only the 50 Day Moving Average, but also many other Trend Following methods in many markets.
Systematic Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 50 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 50 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
Other widely followed moving averages are the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
 Why should you care about the signals produced with the 50 day moving average? There are so many people using the 50 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 50 day moving average.
The below chart shows the current 50 day simple moving average condition on the 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
Security Name Trend2 Ticker
Barclays High Yield Bond Stay Short JNK
BRIC IShares New Long BKF
Coal Power Shares New Long PKOL
DB Commodity Index Stay Short DBC
Diamond Trust DOW Stay Long DIA
Energy Select SPDR New Long XLE
Internet Holders Stay Long HHH
IPath India Index New Long INP
IShare Russell 2000 Stay Long IWM
IShares 25 Index New Long FXI
IShares Australia Stay Long EWA
IShares Basic Materials Stay Long IYM
IShares DJ Real Estate Stay Long IYR
Ishares DJ Transportation Stay Long IYT
Ishares Emerging Markets Stay Short EEM
IShares Financial Sector Stay Long IYF
IShares Germany Stay Short EWG
IShares Hong Kong Stay Long EWH
IShares Latin America New Long ILF
IShares Mexico Stay Long EWW
IShares Mid Cap 400 Stay Long IJH
IShares MSCI EAFE Stay Short EFA
IShares MSCI Japan Stay Long EWJ
IShares Pacific ex Japan Stay Long EPP
IShares S&P 500 Growth Stay Long IVW
Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 Stay Long IJR
IShares Silver New Long SLV
IShares South Africa New Long EZA
IShares South Korea Stay Short EWY
IShares Taiwan Stay Short EWT
IShares United Kingdom Stay Short EWU
NDX 100 Stay Long QQQQ
Oil Service Holders New Long OIH
Pharmaceutical Holders Stay Short PPH
PowerShares US Dollar Index Stay Long UUP
Russia New Long RSX
RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight Stay Long RSP
S&P 500 Stay Long SPY
Semiconductor Holders Stay Long SMH
SPDR Consumer Descretionary Stay Long XLY
SPDR Consumer Staples Stay Long XLP
SPDR Gold Shares Stay Long GLD
SPDR Healthcare Stay Long XLV
SPDR Industrial Sector Stay Long XLI
SPDR International Real Estate New Long RWX
SPDR Materials Stay Short XLB
SPDR Metal & Mining Stay Long XME
SPDR Mid Cap Stay Long MDY
SPDR S&P Homebuilders Stay Long XHB
SPDR Technology Stay Short XLK
Steel Market Vector Stay Long SLX
US Oil Stay Long USO
Wisdom Tree Total Dividend Stay Long DTD
You should not trade any systematic trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing this information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
We monitor the 50 day moving average daily along with a number of other systematic trading plans.
There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 50 day SMA or any other systematic trading system without proper research on the asset.
For questions on rule based, systematic trading, contact
mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com