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Systematic Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for July 23, 2010

|Includes: BFK, BKF, DBC, DIA, DTN, EEM, EEP, EFA, EPP, EWA, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EZA, FXI, GLD, HHH, IJH, IJR, ILF, INP, IVW, IWM, IYF, IYR, IYT, JNK, MDY, OIH, PKOL, PPH, QQQ, RSP, RSX, RWX, SLV, SLX, SMH, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), USO, UUP, XHB, XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLV, XLY, XME
As often is the case, the 200 day moving average can act as resistance or support. When an Index rises above the 200 day moving average only to fall back below, indicates resistance. We are now seeing several Indexes move back above their 200 day moving average.
For a true Trend change, these should stay above and others should shortly join these above their 200 day moving average.
At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service
System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
 Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.
The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
Security Name Trend3 Ticker
Wisdom Tree Total Dividend Stay Short DTD
US Oil Stay Short USO
Steel Market Vector Stay Short SLX
SPDR Technology Stay Short XLK
SPDR S&P Homebuilders Stay Short XHB
SPDR Mid Cap New Long MDY
SPDR Metal & Mining Stay Short XME
SPDR Materials Stay Short XLB
SPDR International Real Estate New Long RWX
SPDR Industrial Sector New Long XLI
SPDR Healthcare Stay Short XLV
SPDR Gold Shares Stay Long GLD
SPDR Consumer Staples New Long XLP
SPDR Consumer Descretionary New Long XLY
Semiconductor Holders Stay Long SMH
S&P 500 Stay Short SPY
RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight New Long RSP
Russia Stay Short RSX
PowerShares US Dollar Index Stay Long UUP
Pharmaceutical Holders Stay Short PPH
Oil Service Holders Stay Short OIH
NDX 100 New Long QQQQ
IShares United Kingdom Stay Short EWU
IShares Taiwan Stay Short EWT
IShares South Korea Stay Long EWY
IShares South Africa Stay Long EZA
IShares Silver New Long SLV
Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 New Long IJR
IShares S&P 500 Growth Stay Short IVW
IShares Pacific ex Japan Stay Short EPP
IShares MSCI Japan Stay Short EWJ
IShares MSCI EAFE Stay Short EFA
IShares Mid Cap 400 New Long IJH
IShares Mexico Stay Long EWW
IShares Latin America New Long ILF
IShares Hong Kong Stay Short EWH
IShares Germany Stay Short EWG
IShares Financial Sector Stay Short IYF
Ishares Emerging Markets New Long EEM
Ishares DJ Transportation New Long IYT
IShares DJ Real Estate Stay Long IYR
IShares Basic Materials Stay Short IYM
IShares Australia Stay Short EWA
IShares 25 Index Stay Short FXI
IShare Russell 2000 Stay Short IWM
IPath India Index Stay Long INP
Internet Holders Stay Short HHH
Energy Select SPDR Stay Short XLE
Diamond Trust DOW Stay Short DIA
DB Commodity Index Stay Short DBC
Coal Power Shares Stay Short PKOL
BRIC IShares Stay Short BKF
Barclays High Yield Bond Stay Long JNK
You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com