Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Systematic Trading Plan: Current 200 Day Moving Average Signals for August 12, 2010

|Includes: BFK, BKF, DBC, DIA, DTN, EEM, EEP, EFA, EPP, EWA, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EZA, FXI, GLD, HHH, IJH, IJR, ILF, INP, IVW, IWM, IYF, IYR, IYT, JNK, MDY, OIH, PKOL, PPH, QQQ, RSP, RSX, RWX, SLV, SLX, SMH, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), USO, UUP, XHB, XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLV, XLY, XME
Today’s large losses in the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq brought those indexes and many others below their 200 day moving averages. Most Indexes closed at or near their lows of the day. The 3 major Indexes are negative for the year. Many other Indexes we track also fell below or are close to failing below the 200 day moving average. Traders using this as their only indicator are being whipsawed.
 At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service
System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
 Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.
The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s. 
Security Name Trend3 Ticker
Barclays High Yield Bond Stay Long JNK
BRIC IShares New Short BKF
Coal Power Shares Stay Short PKOL
DB Commodity Index Stay Short DBC
Diamond Trust DOW New Short DIA
Energy Select SPDR Stay Short XLE
Internet Holders Stay Short HHH
IPath India Index Stay Long INP
IShare Russell 2000 New Short IWM
IShares 25 Index Stay Short FXI
IShares Australia Stay Short EWA
IShares Basic Materials New Short IYM
IShares DJ Real Estate Stay Long IYR
Ishares DJ Transportation Stay Long IYT
Ishares Emerging Markets New Short EEM
IShares Financial Sector Stay Short IYF
IShares Germany New Short EWG
IShares Hong Kong Stay Long EWH
IShares Latin America New Short ILF
IShares Mexico Stay Long EWW
IShares Mid Cap 400 New Short IJH
IShares MSCI EAFE Stay Short EFA
IShares MSCI Japan Stay Short EWJ
IShares Pacific ex Japan New Short EPP
IShares S&P 500 Growth New Short IVW
Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 New Short IJR
IShares Silver Stay Long SLV
IShares South Africa Stay Long EZA
IShares South Korea Stay Long EWY
IShares Taiwan Stay Long EWT
IShares United Kingdom New Short EWU
NDX 100 New Short QQQQ
Oil Service Holders Stay Short OIH
Pharmaceutical Holders Stay Short PPH
PowerShares US Dollar Index New Long UUP
Russia New Short RSX
RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight New Short RSP
S&P 500 New Short SPY
Semiconductor Holders New Short SMH
SPDR Consumer Descretionary Stay Long XLY
SPDR Consumer Staples New Short XLP
SPDR Gold Shares Stay Long GLD
SPDR Healthcare Stay Short XLV
SPDR Industrial Sector Stay Long XLI
SPDR International Real Estate Stay Long RWX
SPDR Materials New Short XLB
SPDR Metal & Mining Stay Short XME
SPDR Mid Cap New Short MDY
SPDR S&P Homebuilders Stay Short XHB
SPDR Technology New Short XLK
Steel Market Vector New Short SLX
US Oil Stay Short USO
Wisdom Tree Total Dividend New Short DTD
You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading. 
These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com