ISHARES MSCI Japan (AMEX: EWJ) Still Not a Good Bet

Apr. 13, 2011 5:17 PM ETEWJ

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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched, “Growth Fund Strategies Report” which used a market timing strategy consisting of changes in interest rates, Fed changes, Market breadth and market price (using the S&P 500 Index). The strategy was hugely successful and issued a major sell signal on September 10th, 1987, just five weeks before the market crash on October 19th. In 1996 his first market timing website was launched. “Market Timer Report” used a refined strategy to market time the general U.S. stock market, and followed a variety of growth stock mutual funds. It was geared towards more conservative mutual fund investors and averaged only one to two switches a year. By the end of the 1990s, the strategy was refined to one that followed market trends instead of using interest rates and breadth on which to base market timing decisions. Because trend following never missed major trends trends, and those trends which failed resulted in minimal gains or losses, it became apparent that this was the better way to profit in what was quickly becoming a hugely overbought stock market. The bear market of 2000 through 2002 generated substantial “bearish position” profits by following trends and Frank began using Fibonacci support and resistance levels to look forward and help identify trends. In 2002 we changed the name of our timing service to FibTimer.com (live link) to better identify ourselves to prospective subscribers. We also began the process of adding new timing strategies, using our trend trading systems to develop both aggressive market timing strategies as well as conservative market timing strategies. In time we added sector fund timing, gold fund timing, bond fund timing and small cap fund timing. In 2003 we expanded to ETF timing strategies as well as starting a portfolio of individual stocks. All using our trend following systems to time the markets. Frank is currently the editor and chief market analyst of FibTimer.com, as well as president of Market Timing Strategies, Inc.

April 14, 2011

Shares of the ISHARES MSCI Japan (AMEX: EWJ) have taken it on the chin after the triple hit of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis het their stock market.

Amazingly, ISHARES Japan is only down 11.3% at the close on Wednesday, April 13.

But at the emotional selloff lows, ISHARES Japan was off almost 18% and that selloff is still having an effect on Japanese stocks.

The selling may not be over and those crisis lows could still be tested in coming weeks. We see support at about $9.25 and that level is likely to be tested.

If ISHARES Japan can rebound after a test of the lows, there is potential for gain. If ISHARES Japan closes below this level, look for another leg down and considerably lows.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not hold a position in ISHARES Japan.

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