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Powershares Nasdaq 100 QQQ Trust (NYSE: QQQ) Confirms Rally

Apr. 21, 2011 4:57 PM ETQQQ
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009

Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched, “Growth Fund Strategies Report” which used a market timing strategy consisting of changes in interest rates, Fed changes, Market breadth and market price (using the S&P 500 Index). The strategy was hugely successful and issued a major sell signal on September 10th, 1987, just five weeks before the market crash on October 19th. In 1996 his first market timing website was launched. “Market Timer Report” used a refined strategy to market time the general U.S. stock market, and followed a variety of growth stock mutual funds. It was geared towards more conservative mutual fund investors and averaged only one to two switches a year. By the end of the 1990s, the strategy was refined to one that followed market trends instead of using interest rates and breadth on which to base market timing decisions. Because trend following never missed major trends trends, and those trends which failed resulted in minimal gains or losses, it became apparent that this was the better way to profit in what was quickly becoming a hugely overbought stock market. The bear market of 2000 through 2002 generated substantial “bearish position” profits by following trends and Frank began using Fibonacci support and resistance levels to look forward and help identify trends. In 2002 we changed the name of our timing service to FibTimer.com (live link) to better identify ourselves to prospective subscribers. We also began the process of adding new timing strategies, using our trend trading systems to develop both aggressive market timing strategies as well as conservative market timing strategies. In time we added sector fund timing, gold fund timing, bond fund timing and small cap fund timing. In 2003 we expanded to ETF timing strategies as well as starting a portfolio of individual stocks. All using our trend following systems to time the markets. Frank is currently the editor and chief market analyst of FibTimer.com, as well as president of Market Timing Strategies, Inc.

April 25, 2011

Shares of the ETF Powershares Nasdaq 100 QQQ Trust (NYSE: QQQ) broke above its declining trend resistance line in Wednesday’s April 20 rally. This line was the upper line of a pennant pattern that we wrote above previously and which, when broken, would point to the direction of the Q’s in coming weeks.

A rising line drawn from the March 16 lows through the April 18 lows and continued to the right on a daily chart creates a rising trend support line.

Connecting the February 16 and April 4 highs in the same way and extending the line to the right creates a declining trend resistance line. This is a pennant pattern.

A break of either of these lines (closing price) would likely be followed by a continued move in the direction of the break.

Typically, when a pennant pattern forms after a long term advance, the break is to the upside. On Thursday, April 21, the Q’s gapped higher at the open and rallied again into the close. This confirmed the prior day’s breakout of the pennant formation.

The Q’s still need to close above their prior rally high at $58.88, about 1% higher. But this holiday shortened week has pointed to higher highs for the Q’s.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in the Powershares Nasdaq 100 QQQ Trust.

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