Ishares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) Takes a Beating

May 03, 2011 5:50 PM ETSLV

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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009

Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched, “Growth Fund Strategies Report” which used a market timing strategy consisting of changes in interest rates, Fed changes, Market breadth and market price (using the S&P 500 Index). The strategy was hugely successful and issued a major sell signal on September 10th, 1987, just five weeks before the market crash on October 19th. In 1996 his first market timing website was launched. “Market Timer Report” used a refined strategy to market time the general U.S. stock market, and followed a variety of growth stock mutual funds. It was geared towards more conservative mutual fund investors and averaged only one to two switches a year. By the end of the 1990s, the strategy was refined to one that followed market trends instead of using interest rates and breadth on which to base market timing decisions. Because trend following never missed major trends trends, and those trends which failed resulted in minimal gains or losses, it became apparent that this was the better way to profit in what was quickly becoming a hugely overbought stock market. The bear market of 2000 through 2002 generated substantial “bearish position” profits by following trends and Frank began using Fibonacci support and resistance levels to look forward and help identify trends. In 2002 we changed the name of our timing service to FibTimer.com (live link) to better identify ourselves to prospective subscribers. We also began the process of adding new timing strategies, using our trend trading systems to develop both aggressive market timing strategies as well as conservative market timing strategies. In time we added sector fund timing, gold fund timing, bond fund timing and small cap fund timing. In 2003 we expanded to ETF timing strategies as well as starting a portfolio of individual stocks. All using our trend following systems to time the markets. Frank is currently the editor and chief market analyst of FibTimer.com, as well as president of Market Timing Strategies, Inc.

May 4, 2011

Shares of Ishares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) closed at $40.58 on Tuesday, May 3, with a two day loss of 13.4 %.

It was bound to happen after almost parabolic price gains in recent weeks. In fact, even after these losses SLV remains above its 50-day moving average.

Typically corrections follow a 3 wave pattern so though the two losses are steep, there are still likely further losses ahead.

Nothing rises forever but then nothing falls forever either. There is support at $37.62, the 50% retracement level of the January to April advance. This is also about where the 50-day moving average will be met if SLV moves lower.

Bollinger Bands are also pointing to lower lows ahead, with a low near $36.00 a share potential.

Gold shares (Streettracks Gold Shares – GLD) and bullion remain well near their highs. This appears to be a move limited to silver.

http://www.fibtimer.com does not currently have a position in Ishares Silver Trust.

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