July 8, 2011
Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT) reversed their three month trend to the upside on June 24. It may still have more downside ahead.
TLT hit correction lows on June 30 and have since traded sideways, but typically corrections run in at least three waves so based on wave analysis and only one down wave in place there should still be a lower low ahead.
There is a rising trend support line on the daily chart that connects the correction lows reached on February 10 and then April 11. Extend that line to the right and it crosses below current dates at around $92.50.
The support could result in a new rally, or at least a tradable bounce over coming weeks, but a decisive close below $92.50 would likely result in considerably lower lows ahead.
The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not currently hold a position in TLT.