February 16, 2012
Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT) have been slowly losing ground since they reached a rally high back on October 4, 2011.
After a correction, TLT rebounded but was unable to reach new highs. Since that time the ETF has been slowly declining.
There have been three rally attempts Since December 19 and each has ended at a lower high.
There have been three declines also and each has ended at a lower low.
This is a bearish pattern and it points to a likely break to lower lows ahead. There is support at $115 a share and if this level is broken, we could see declines quickly reaching $110 a share.
We would not consider a short position unless support is broken and we would not consider a bullish position at all.
The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy does not currently hold a position in TLT.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.