December 4, 2009
Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and it’s tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY), appear to have hit a seemingly unsurpassable wall in their quest for new 2009 highs. For the SPX it is at 1100 and for the SPY it is at 111.00.
The wall was hit over two weeks ago, on November 16, and since that date both the SPX and SPY have attempted to scale it some nine times. So far, neither has made a decisive close above.
This is a very critical level; the 50% retracement of the entire 2008-2009 bear market decline.
A decisive close above and the bulls would likely push prices considerably higher. A failure here and we could be in for weeks of corrective declines.
The period from Thanksgiving in November until New Years Day on January 1st is typically bullish for the stock market.
It is now or never.
If the SPX and SPY cannot surpass these important levels by year end, we would expect to see sellers take the markets down early next year.
The http://www.fibtimer.com ETF Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPYDRs.
Disclosure: The Fibtimer ETF Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPYDRs.