March 30, 2010
Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT) have reached three new lows in trading for 2010, each lower than the previous low. TLT could break lower.
With share prices at lows that have held all declines since October 2007, TLT is acting like it will push below those lows head even lower.
The $88.00 level has acted as strong resistance for almost four years. But share prices declined to $88.76 in January, to $88.51 in February and then to $88.31 on Monday, March 29. Steadily lower intra-day and correction lows.
Support continues to hold, but how many times can the same level sustain share prices? This week will likely give us the answer.
A break and close below $88.00 a share could result in a wave of lower lows over coming weeks. At the same time, TLT has rallied from this level many times over several years, so a bullish reversal could result in a nice trade to the upside.
Either way, we would not touch these shares until they make a decisive move one way or the other.
Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.