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Could Media Trends Signal A Romney Win?

Having worked as a PR and media strategist for political campaigns, I can attest that the main stream media telegraphs more information about the future than many realize. At face value the articles and coverage may seem watered down and lacking the in depth substance obtained though diligent market research. However, when you realize how much the mainstream media affects the views of your average consumer, overlooking subtle trends can be a costly mistake.

Several weeks ago, I began to notice CNN making a dramatic shift in their coverage of Mitt Romney. They have increasingly run more pro Romney and Ryan televised stories and website articles, while shifting to a more negative approach on their coverage of Obama.

At the conclusion of last nights Vice Presidential debate CNN had a supposed panel of independent voters. Every single voter in the panel ended up saying that they believed Ryan won the debate. It was almost transparently laughable that not a single member of the independent voter panel thought Biden had won. In reality, independent voters tend to still favor one party over the other to some degree.

Many respectable commentators on other networks, including Bloomberg, called the debate a draw and some believe Biden won. A poll conducted by CBS showed a Biden win as well. So why is it that not even a single person on the CNN independent voter panel ended up siding with Biden when many experts called it a draw? Could it be that the panel was loaded with right leaning independents instead of a balanced group of independent voters?

The shift to the right by CNN could push Romney to a victory easier than one might think. Considering that many independents have grown tired of the blatant partisanship of both FOX and MSNBC, CNN would be an ideal place to target the independent audience. Study after study has shown that a sizable percentage of voters will vote for the candidate that they perceive to be the one winning or the candidate with the momentum. This election will likely be a very close call, so influencing only one or two million undecided voters into the Romney camp could lead to a Romney win.

For investors who are on the fence about adding a Romney victory play to their portfolio, this could indicate that the risk is worth the gamble. Current Wall Street odds have Obama somewhere around a 65% chance of winning, so their may be some nice profits on a Romney surprise in certain sectors.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.