Tesla 2020 Q3 & Q4 Automotive Unit Sales

Summary

• Tesla can produce nearly 500k cars in 2020.
• Q3 Total Production 138,618 Units.
• Q4 Total Production 151,728 Units.

Much of Tesla's $280B Market Cap has to do with the growth narrative. The $TESLAQ community I follow note how this quarter proves said narrative is broken. I disagree, Coronavirus caused shutdowns removes responsibility for the lack of growth.  

Several key assumptions to note:

1. Demand is of no concern for Tesla, hence we do not care about deliveries. We'll look at demand later
2. Tesla was able to ramp back to pre-COVID levels very soon after reopening

Key dates to remember.

• January 29th, 2020 Shanghai factory closed for COVID
• February 10th, 2020 Shanghai factory reopened
• March 24th, 2020 Fremont factory closed for COVID
• May 17th, 2020 Fremont factory reopened after Tesla sued Alameda County

Key Facts:

• Giga Shanghai capacity is estimated to produce 250,000 units/year
• Fremont factory capacity estimated at 500,000 units/year

TESLA SALES 2019Q2 - 2020Q1

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2
Models S/X
Production	14,150	14,517	16,318	17,933	15,390	6,326
Deliveries	12,100	17,722	17,483	19,475	12,230	10,614
Models 3/Y
Production	62,950	72,531	79,837	86,958	87,282	75,946
Deliveries	50,900	77,634	79,703	92,620	76,266	80,277
Production in Shanghai (ESTIMATE)					6,714	32,467
Production in Fremont (ESTIMATE)	62,950	72,531	79,837	86,958	80,568	43,479
Produced	77,100	87,048	96,155	104,891	102,672	82,272
Delivered	63,000	95,356	97,186	112,095	88,496	90,891

Based on the reported production numbers and the number of days, I estimate Tesla produced 6,714 cars in China and 80,568 in Fremont in Q1. With the shutdown of the factory in Fremont for 7 of 13 weeks, I estimate, conservatively assuming Tesla required no ramp-up time in Fremont, 43,679 cars produced, with the remaining 32,467 produced in Shanghai. 

FORECASTING PRODUCTION

• Models S/X production at Fremont remains flat as most increase goes to lower margin Models 3/Y
• Shanghai and Fremont each grow production at 10.7%/quarter, amounting to a 50% annual growth rate
• Fremont factory begins growing at 10.7% in Q4, Q3 production returns to pre-COVID numbers

	2020Q1	2020Q2	2020Q3	2020Q4	Total
Models S/X
Production	15,390	6,326	15,730	15,730	53,175
Models 3/Y
Production	87,282	75,946	122889	135999	422,115
Production in Shanghai (ESTIMATE)	6,714	32,467	35931	39764	114,875
Production in Fremont (ESTIMATE)	80,568	43,479	86958	96235	307,240
Produced	102,672	82,272	138,618	151,728	475,290

If there was a longer ramp-up period in Q2 for Fremont, Giga Shanghai would have a higher weekly production rate in Q2, and assuming the same growth rate of 50%/annum, Tesla would be even closer to 500k units sold for 2020.

If Tesla is capable of returning production immediately to pre-COVID levels and growing said production by 50%/annum, Tesla will reach nearly 500k units produced. Tesla reaching these levels provides evidence that they should be categorized as a growth company. However, its growth will not be linear. If they are capable of growing production in existing factories at 50%/annum or faster, Tesla's current infrastructure will cap out in early to mid-2020 and new investments in plants will need to be made.

What are your estimates? Where do you think I went wrong?